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The correct RSI value is the next PREVIOUS higher RSI value where price is higher than price at the high of #2. The left red arrow should be pointing to the next higher RSI value. Loren From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Loren Morlan Sent: Sunday, January 02, 2011 5:41 PM To: metatrader_experts_and_indicators@yahoogroups.com; Divergence@yahoogroups.com Subject: [MT_E and I] EUR/CHF, 1/2/11, 1 HOUR Beware the false rally higher Weekly chart posted yesterday traced the beginning of a bottom pattern, the low of that weekly period has not been conclusively established. In this circumstance the attached 1 hour chart also traces a bottoming pattern in this shorter period. However and most importantly price traced lower in this period. Its significance is that this same lower price tracing will also later be seen in the weekly period. The 1 hour bottoming pattern will also be traced later in the weekly as a general occurrence. Not always but often. The 1 hour chart clearly trace RSI "W" below the 30 line next followed by the first CPD, next a RND (multiple RSI peaks above 50, one of which is over 70) suggesting strength in buying. The 3rd and final CPD confirms a bottom in this shorter period. Price will move higher and meet resistance at a Fibonacci retracement or expansion level at which point price will probably move lower than the present chart low. The weekly chart price tracing does not yet look like that traced in the 1 hour or 4 hour periods. The present two issues with respect to price action are first, where is the top of the 1 hour (possible 4 hour rally up)? Secondly where will price retrace too? The present chart low or move lower consistence with the lower price tracing observed in the 1 hour period. If price recognizes the present chart low as support a period of consolidation will likely follow. The weekly price bars and RSI however have not conclusively traced a completed bottom and thus it is reasonable to assume the down trend will continue to a lower low subsequent to the 1 hour retrace presently underway. In either case, trades in this period of price searching for the actual bottom are higher risk. Comments; MACD is often accurate with respect to the momentum issue in rallies, up or down. When price previously rally up to the RND highs #2, MACD remained above its zero. Presently MACD is above its zero line and offers some guidance as to the ultimate high and its exhaustion. Loren ------=_NextPart_000_0015_01CBAAA7.E68E31D0 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit  

CORRECTION:

The RSI value used for the RND is incorrect.  The correct RSI value is the next PREVIOUS higher RSI value where price is higher than price at the high of #2.   The left red arrow should be pointing to the next higher RSI value.

 

Loren

 

From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Loren Morlan
Sent: Sunday, January 02, 2011 5:41 PM
To: metatrader_experts_and_indicators@yahoogroups.com; Divergence@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [MT_E and I] EUR/CHF, 1/2/11, 1 HOUR Beware the false rally higher

 

 

Weekly chart posted yesterday traced the beginning of a bottom  pattern, the low of that weekly period has not been conclusively established.   In this circumstance the attached 1 hour chart also traces a bottoming pattern in this shorter period.  However and most importantly price traced lower in this period.  Its significance is that this same lower price tracing will also later be seen in the weekly period.   The 1 hour bottoming pattern will also be traced later in the weekly as a general occurrence.  Not always but often. 

 

The 1 hour chart clearly trace RSI “W” below the 30 line next followed by the first CPD, next a RND (multiple RSI peaks above 50, one of which is over 70) suggesting strength in buying.  The 3rd and final CPD confirms a bottom in this shorter period.  Price will move higher and meet resistance at a Fibonacci retracement or expansion level at which point price will probably move lower than the present chart low.  The weekly chart price tracing does not yet look like that traced in the 1 hour or 4 hour periods. 

 

The present two issues with respect to price action are first,  where is the top of the 1 hour  (possible 4 hour rally up)?  Secondly where will price retrace too?  The present chart low or move lower consistence with the lower price tracing observed in the 1 hour period.   If price recognizes the present chart low as support a period of consolidation will likely follow.  The weekly price bars and RSI however have not conclusively traced a completed bottom and thus it is reasonable to assume the down trend will continue to a lower low subsequent to the 1 hour retrace presently underway.    In either case, trades in this period of price searching for the actual bottom are higher risk. 

 

Comments;

MACD is often accurate with respect to the momentum issue in rallies, up or down.   When price previously rally up to the RND highs #2, MACD remained above its zero.  Presently MACD is above its zero line and offers some guidance as to the ultimate high and its exhaustion. 

 

Loren

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