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Wed, 25 Jan 2012 18:47:08 +0000 To: References: <002201ccd94d$43b471b0$cb1d5510$@rr.com> <000701ccda05$19e213c0$4da63b40$@rr.com>,<003f01ccdae1$f2698480$d73c8d80$@rr.com> In-Reply-To: Message-ID: <001901ccdb91$ba469330$2ed3b990$@rr.com> X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook 12.0 Thread-Index: AczbHNefckr6/DNPQ+eAnE3WwrBNswAZXWdQ Content-Language: en-us X-Originating-IP: 71.74.56.125 From: "Loren Morlan" X-Yahoo-Profile: lorenmorlan X-eGroups-Approved-By: rosstodd via web; 25 Jan 2012 22:38:01 -0000 Sender: Divergence@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list Divergence@yahoogroups.com; contact Divergence-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list Divergence@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Wed, 25 Jan 2012 13:46:59 -0500 Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT [2 Attachments] Reply-To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_001B_01CCDB67.D1708B30" ------=_NextPart_001_001B_01CCDB67.D1708B30 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hello Vinod, thank you for your comments re this issue. As we know the VIX is the volatility index of the S&P500 which is similar but not identical to volatility of the NASDAQ. Volatility vs. market direction and more important the location of price in the EW structure are different issues. Volatility is not a leading indicator of market direction, rather it is a confirmation of direction. Further it may be used to confirm price location in the EW cycle. In order to explain the relationship between VIX/volatility and market direction and thus price location in the EW cycle I attach two daily charts of each index for real time comparison of each feature. Print both charts for side by side comparison. NASDAQ vs. VIX/volatility; NASDAQ is first examined with respect to EW highs and lows. Corrective wave 2 high occurred on or about 7/7/11, the point of beginning of impulse wave 3, corrective 4 and impulse wave 5 on 10/14/11. Waves 3 and 5 are expected to trace lower. Compare the position and subsequent higher tracing of VIX beginning on 7/7/11. VIX was an inverse tracing of price observed in the NASDAQ chart. Price moved down to wave 5 low in the NASDAQ while VIX traced higher to wave 5 on 10/4/11. Most recent tracings of each index confirm that price is at or near corrective wave B (price traced higher) in the NASDAQ and volatility traced lower in the VIX. When VIX traces lower values, price will later trace higher has been the objective record of these side by side index comparisons. The importance of VIX index is that it confirms IMPULSE waves either higher or lower. In this example price is in a corrective cycle lower. Thus impulse wave 3 through 5 in the VIX will move higher as reflected in this VIX chart while price in the NASDAQ traces lower. Corrective wave B higher in the NASDAQ generates lower VIX values in that index. VIX, like the NASDAQ also traces pertinent divergences, and the current RPD in the VIX suggest that this index will soon trace higher. The corollary in the NASDAQ will result in lower price. As indicated below the VIX confirms price direction lower for the NASDAQ/S&P500. However VIX does not tell us where price is located in the EW cycle. In order to determine this issue which is most important, follow my earlier chart examples using indicators mentioned. Loren From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Vinod Hariya Sent: Tuesday, January 24, 2012 11:14 PM To: divergence@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT Hi Loren, My comment was solely based on my readings on option related strategies. Most of them propogate that VIX is a fear index. When it is high, the stocks/indexes will fall and vice-versa. The current VIX chart shows it to be around 18 ( the yearly low is about 15), hence my comment. If you can post a VIX chart with your valuable comments, it will surely help people like me add to our knowledge. Thanks Vinod _____ To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com CC: vinodhariya@hotmail.com From: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2012 16:48:45 -0500 Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT Hello Vinod, You have not responded to this comment re volatility vs. direction of market action. Do you want me to post a chart of VIX re this issue? As indicated I am interested in the factual basis for your comment/observation that the VIX suggested "otherwise" re direction of the NASDAQ. There can be no advancement or enlightenment of this issue without your input concerning your observation. Perhaps you now agree with me that volatility (VIX) is of little importance regarding the fundamental issue of market direction? Thank you, Loren From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Loren Morlan Sent: Monday, January 23, 2012 2:28 PM To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT Yes I chart the CBOE (VIX). I would be interested in any EW analysis which suggests the opposite of the bearish NASDAQ chart which generates your observation. Volatility (VIX) may increase of decrease in either bullish or bearish market action and is not necessarily controlling of direction. My analysis of the NASDAQ relates to market direction not volatility. The former issue is more important than the latter. CBOE/VIX volatility in my weekly chart shows RSI tracing below 50 (41.83), bearish. In addition both MACD momentum indicators trace well below their zero lines and are grossly bearish. VIX/CBOE in my opinion does not suggest "otherwise". VIX confirms the bearish condition of these indexes. I see nothing in this chart which suggests the opposite of my comments re the bearish direction of S&P500 and NASDAQ indexes. Please provide any chart or written EW analysis which is contradictory. If you wish I will post a chart of the weekly VIX and invite you to tell where or how it is inconsistent with the NASDAQ analysis with respect to direction. VIX can be important in an analysis of the S&P500 since volatility is always important but not always controlling. More important however, in my opinion, is the EW analysis of both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ indexes which incidentally are in lock step. The latter being the leader in up or down markets. Thank you for your note Vinod since it is important to discuss these analysis issues. Loren From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Vinod Hariya Sent: Monday, January 23, 2012 1:19 AM To: divergence@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT Hi Loren, The VIX suggests otherwise. Do you also track the VIX? Just my observation. I am not an expert like u. Thanks Vinod _____ To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com From: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2012 16:31:51 -0500 Subject: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT [1 Attachment] [Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan included below] DAILY; Price, fractals and indicators have now traced the probable high of important wave c/C/2 in this period. No daily fractal has been traced at this point, although the four hour chart has traced its last fractal at this high suggesting this to be the high of 2. In addition price pattern traces a bearish AB=CD at this point. This high is an .854 Fib. retrace which is consistent with corrective wave 2. Wave c/2 includes many mistaken bulls who think price will move higher. Bears have set the trap for aggressive bulls. Wave 2 can retrace to 100% of chart high but no higher and still retain this EW count analysis. RSI traces an active RND at Wave 2. Reverse divergences ultimately always fulfill their prediction of either higher or lower price. They never disappoint. Unlike classic divergences which often do disappoint. Current 20 day SMA is much closer to the 200 day SMA compared to the prior price level circled in red. Bulls have lost strength and are unable to force their 20 day SMA higher compared with the previous period examined. This is an internal SMA negative divergence which suggests bears are actually in control of present market action. Faster MACD indicator shows loss of strength with its bars closer to its zero line and declining. This indicator often provides early warning of wave highs or lows and does so in this example. Comments; Impulse WEEKLY wave 1 and wave 5 in the daily is established. Daily counter corrective wave c/2 is also likely established (no fractal yet traced). These inverse 8 waves are a full 8 EW pattern lower and thereby establish this correction to be a Zigzag. Price is now or soon will be searching for the low of wave 3, next corrective wave 4, then wave 5 in the daily which is also wave (A) in the weekly. Vertical blue line wave 1, red corrective 2, green wave 3, red corrective 4, magenta wave 5, red corrective wave c/C/2. Vertical same colored lines remain on all charts of trading interest. Not all currencies, equities, etc. are as easy to determine price location in the EW cycle as this example of the NASDAQ. When uncertain of price location in that cycle do not trade. In other words the trader must know with exact certainty where price is locate in the monthly, weekly, daily and shorter time frame periods used for entry. Absent that explicit knowledge trades are merely guess work at best, IMHO. Loren _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 2012.0.1901 / Virus Database: 2109/4761 - Release Date: 01/23/12 _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 2012.0.1901 / Virus Database: 2109/4761 - Release Date: 01/23/12 _____ No virus found in this message. Checked by AVG - www.avg.com Version: 2012.0.1901 / Virus Database: 2109/4765 - Release Date: 01/25/12 ------=_NextPart_001_001B_01CCDB67.D1708B30 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit  
[Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan included below]

Hello Vinod, thank you for your comments re this issue.

As we know the VIX is the volatility index of the S&P500 which is similar but not identical to volatility of the NASDAQ.  Volatility vs. market direction and more important the location of price in the EW structure are different issues.   Volatility is not a leading indicator of market direction, rather it is a confirmation of direction.  Further it may be used to confirm price location in the EW cycle.   In order to explain the relationship between  VIX/volatility and market direction and thus price location in the EW cycle I attach two daily charts of each index for real time comparison of each feature.   Print both charts for side by side comparison. 

 

NASDAQ vs. VIX/volatility;

NASDAQ is first examined with respect to EW highs and lows.  Corrective wave 2 high occurred on or about 7/7/11, the point of beginning of impulse wave 3, corrective 4 and impulse wave 5 on 10/14/11.  Waves 3 and 5 are expected to trace lower.  Compare the position and subsequent higher tracing of VIX beginning on 7/7/11.  VIX was an inverse tracing of price observed in the NASDAQ  chart.  Price moved down to wave 5 low in the NASDAQ while VIX  traced higher to wave 5 on 10/4/11. 

 

Most recent tracings of each index confirm that price is at or near corrective wave B (price traced higher) in the NASDAQ and volatility traced lower in the VIX.   When VIX traces lower values, price will later trace higher has been the objective record of these side by side index comparisons.

 

The importance of VIX index is that it confirms IMPULSE waves either higher or lower.  In this example price is in a corrective cycle lower.  Thus impulse wave 3 through 5 in the VIX will move higher as reflected in this VIX chart while price in the NASDAQ traces lower.  Corrective wave B higher in the NASDAQ generates lower VIX values in that index.

 

VIX, like the NASDAQ also traces pertinent divergences, and the current RPD in the VIX suggest that this index will soon trace higher.  The corollary in the NASDAQ will result in lower price.  As indicated below the VIX confirms price direction lower for the NASDAQ/S&P500.  However VIX does not tell us where price is located in the EW cycle.  In order to determine this issue which is most important, follow my earlier chart examples using indicators mentioned.

 

Loren

 

 

From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Vinod Hariya
Sent: Tuesday, January 24, 2012 11:14 PM
To: divergence@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT

 

 

Hi Loren,

 

My comment was solely based on my readings on option related strategies. Most of them propogate that VIX is a fear index. When it is high, the stocks/indexes will fall and vice-versa.

 

The current VIX chart shows it to be around 18 ( the yearly low is about 15), hence my comment.

 

If you can post a VIX chart with your valuable comments, it will surely help people like me add to our knowledge.

 

Thanks

Vinod

 

 

 

To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com
CC: vinodhariya@hotmail.com
From: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com
Date: Tue, 24 Jan 2012 16:48:45 -0500
Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT

 

 

Hello Vinod,

You have not responded to this comment re volatility vs. direction of market action.   Do you want me to post a chart of VIX re this issue?  As indicated I am interested in the factual basis for your comment/observation that the VIX suggested “otherwise” re direction of the NASDAQ.  There can be no advancement or enlightenment of this issue without your input concerning your observation.  Perhaps you now agree with me that volatility (VIX) is of little importance regarding the fundamental issue of market direction? 

Thank you,

Loren

 

 

From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Loren Morlan
Sent: Monday, January 23, 2012 2:28 PM
To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT

 

 

Yes I chart the CBOE (VIX).  I would be interested in any EW analysis which suggests the opposite of the bearish NASDAQ chart which generates your observation.   Volatility (VIX) may increase of decrease in either bullish or bearish market action and is not necessarily controlling of direction.  My analysis of the NASDAQ  relates to market direction not volatility.  The former issue is more important than the latter. 

 

CBOE/VIX volatility in my weekly chart shows RSI tracing below 50 (41.83), bearish.  In addition both MACD momentum indicators trace well below their zero lines and are grossly bearish.   VIX/CBOE in my opinion does not suggest “otherwise”.   VIX confirms the bearish condition of these indexes.  I see nothing in this chart which suggests the opposite of my comments re the bearish direction of S&P500 and NASDAQ indexes.  Please provide  any chart or written EW analysis which is contradictory.  If you wish I will post a chart of the weekly VIX and  invite you to tell where or how it is inconsistent with the NASDAQ analysis with respect to direction.

 

VIX can be important in an analysis of the S&P500 since volatility is always important but not always controlling.  More important however, in my opinion, is the EW analysis of both the S&P500 and the NASDAQ indexes which incidentally are in lock step.   The latter being the leader in up or down markets.  

 

Thank you for your note Vinod since it is important to discuss these analysis issues.

Loren

 

From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Vinod Hariya
Sent: Monday, January 23, 2012 1:19 AM
To: divergence@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT

 

 


Hi Loren,

 

The VIX suggests otherwise. Do you also track the VIX?

Just my observation. I am not an expert like u.

 

Thanks

Vinod

 

To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com
From: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com
Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2012 16:31:51 -0500
Subject: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 1/22/12, DAILY EW COUNT [1 Attachment]

 

[Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan included below]

DAILY;

Price, fractals and indicators have now traced the probable high of important wave c/C/2 in this period.  No daily fractal has been traced at this point,  although the four hour chart has traced its last fractal at this high suggesting this to be the high of 2.  In addition price pattern traces a bearish AB=CD at this point.  This high is an .854 Fib. retrace which is consistent with corrective wave 2.  Wave c/2 includes many mistaken bulls who think price will move higher.  Bears have set the trap for aggressive bulls.  Wave 2 can retrace to 100% of chart high but no higher and still retain this EW count analysis.

 

RSI traces an active RND at Wave 2.  Reverse divergences ultimately always fulfill their prediction of either higher or lower price.  They never disappoint.  Unlike classic divergences which often do disappoint.    

 

Current 20 day SMA is much closer to the 200 day SMA compared to the prior price level circled in red.   Bulls have lost strength and are unable to force their 20 day SMA higher compared with the previous period examined.   This is an internal SMA negative divergence which suggests bears are actually in control of present market action.  

 

Faster MACD indicator shows loss of strength with its bars closer to its zero line and declining.  This indicator often provides early warning of wave highs or lows and does so in this example. 

 

Comments;

Impulse WEEKLY wave 1 and wave 5 in the daily is established.  Daily counter corrective wave c/2 is also likely established (no fractal yet traced).  These inverse 8 waves are a full 8 EW pattern lower and thereby establish this correction to be a Zigzag.   Price is now or soon will be searching for the low of wave 3, next corrective wave 4, then wave 5 in the daily which is also wave (A) in the weekly.   

 

Vertical blue line wave 1, red corrective 2, green wave 3, red corrective 4, magenta wave 5, red corrective wave c/C/2.  Vertical same colored lines remain on all charts of trading interest.  

 

Not all currencies, equities, etc. are as easy to determine price location in the EW cycle as this example of the NASDAQ.  When uncertain of price location in that cycle do not trade.  In other words the trader must know with exact certainty where price is locate in the monthly, weekly, daily and shorter time frame periods used for entry.   Absent that explicit knowledge trades are merely guess work at best, IMHO.

 

Loren

 

No virus found in this message.
Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 2012.0.1901 / Virus Database: 2109/4761 - Release Date: 01/23/12

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Checked by AVG - www.avg.com
Version: 2012.0.1901 / Virus Database: 2109/4761 - Release Date: 01/23/12

 

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Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan

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