The key to a successful EA is finding an accurate indicator which will identify "trend" in any time frame. Hayden in his book "RSI: The Complete Guide" at pages 107 to 110 discusses his use of the "standard workhorse tool used by most technical traders". Hayden and others use moving averages because they remove volatility from the data series.

He states that the "trend" may be confirmed by calculating a 9-period SMA and a 45-period WMA on RSI and price. The specific rules for this setup are mentioned at pp. 107.

I use this setup and in addition add a 20-period SMA to both price and RSI. The 20-period SMA uses a Bollinger value. I attach chart of gbp/usd showing its appearance.

Loren

----- Original Message -----

From: Ross Todd

To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com

Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 5:31 PM

Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] HELP! bolltrade v3h2 with ben's rec. filters running?

I will post my results of the different settings and trade results of Ron's BolTrader tomorrow. The results will be flawed however because I was using IBFX demos which really sucked this week - not only that but I couldn't start the EA at the Sunday start becouse of a power outage. But it does look like this week will be a loss - after a couple winning weeks.

This EA is great when the market is in a fairly tight range but will get beat up when the market gets into a trend. There are some better EA's when the market is trending - Ron has written some based on MA's, TMA's, etc that work well in a trend (I am sure there are others - like TSD) - Anyway I was just wondering if it would be possible to combine several systems into 1 EA? For example - when the BolTrader is running - the Moutiki (trendline based EA) could be setting Buy or Sell stops based on the TL breakout and a MA could verify the breakout trade and manage the continuation of the trade if there was indeed a breakout. It would certainly be possible that you might have a long and a short going at the same time.

I think the ideal time to start using the BolTrader would be to wait til after you have caught a good trend - for example - you look at the Weekly chart and determine that  the pair in an overall up trend - then you see that on the Day chart - the price is at the bottom of the Bollinger band - it breaks the TL long - the fast MA has crossed the slow MA so you are going long. After you wrere up about a 100 pips - the BolTrader kicks in to play with the houses' money. The long trade is still running but now you are using the BolTrader scalp some short trades and add positions to the long trade (don't close the long trades at 9 pips - let them run). If you do get into a loosing short trade you have hedged the loss by the open long trade(s).

OK - maybe this is just crazy and after I think about it a while - I will regret posting - but maybe it will jump start somebody else's correct thinking....

ross

----- Original Message -----

From: Ben Nachtrieb

To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com

Sent: 10/19/2006 7:37:27 AM

Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] HELP! bolltrade v3h2 with ben's rec. filters running?

Der_k, : )

Well, I saw your message below last night. At the same time bolltrade had a ton of sells open from about 730gmt to 2340gmt. None of these open positions saw any retracement big enough to hit tp so they stayed open. Why? Because, if you look at the eur/usd during that time, price never really retraced after it deviated from the mean....what you'd want if you were trading small trends. Not good for the Bolltrader. Long story short these sells never got retraced and price broke out hitting a bunch of SL's. Big losses...relatively speaking. I'm down to half my original balance. That said....

If you look at the results of the backtests it is somewhat consistant: numerous wins with only a few isolated losses here and there (if any) then a bunch of losses in a row. The isolated losses are outliers (the earliest buys or sells in a series of trades that are openned and their SL gets hit before they see the retracement). The "bunch of losses in a row" is when price rises for a while then breaks out in the SAME DIRECTION. The breakout sees enough vol. to stop trading but positions are already open at that time in anticipation of retracement. The breakout hits a bunch of stoplosses and causes a succession of big losses.

So..... Either 1) The timing may have been bad: I started trading one day before price had one of these somewhat rare steady increases then broke out in the same direction. And I just need to wait a little and the wins will outpace the losses in the long run. Or 2) the bolltrader with a small BDistance and small period setting doesn't work.

At this time I think its 1) above. Here's why: I just did a back test with the exact settings as I have been doing etc. and the succession of losses I have had since CPI also shows up in a backtest over the that same timeframe. So that tells us (generally) that the backtests are including these succession of losses. This negates (does not eliminate) the disatorous thought that the backtests are completely skipping, missing, not factoring in these huge repeated losses. This gives me more confidence that the bolltrader will in fact eventually work in the long run.

Volume: the vol. filter is supposed protect us against massive news-like price runs....I haven't been able to run the bolltrader during this situation so there is no saying (unless you look at backtesting) if it will protect us yet. The vol. filter played no significant role yet....

Is compounding dangerous with this EA? - I think you should turn compounding off until your account balance can tolerate the eventual run of bad trades. It will make the swings in your balance smaller...the good ones will be smaller too though. Then once you have enough balance to tolerate the swings turn compounding on. This is assuming the wins will way way out pace the losers in number over the long run. So if you consider big swings bad then yes the compounding is bad. If you have a larger balance and/or trading tiny amounts (compared to your balance) and you don't mind larger swings in balance I'd say compounding is a good thing. I just came to this conclusion.....thanks Derk for making me think about it.

Note- I'm not pushing or slamming the bolltrader or any set of settings here....just sharing info. Also, it was probably irresponsible for me to post a 18% gain over night....thats just one night. And anyone knows any system that has big quick gains always has big quick losses.

An idea someone may want to:

If the ratio of open trades in one direction compared to the other direction exceeds X stop openning trades and place a breakout pending order anticipating price will go against all of open orders you have open at the time. Use good risk to reward ratio on this breakout with a tight stop and trade as many lots as you have going the other direction. Why? This will be insurance if it breaks out instead of retracing like we want. And because its a pending order it will only be triggered if things don't retrace and things breakout and now you might be in a good trend trade! : ) In short if you have a ton of open trades in one direction it might be a signal that things are going to trend or at least breakout.... Of course this could bite you too....

Derk - I'm down to half my original balance now! I don't think you want my Bolltrader! ha ha. Hoping it will come back though...like testing showed.

ben

mountainclimber

----- Original Message ----
From: Ash Woods <ashwoods155@yahoo.com>
To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
Sent: Thursday, October 19, 2006 2:24:18 AM
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] HELP! bolltrade v3h2 with ben's rec. filters running?

Ben:

Not at all; I guess I was actually a little jealous; my account will only do .1 lots, not .01 :-)

Maybe I should try running another version with lots set to .1 and compounding on.

Mine has made over 10% in 3 days with it off, but wow! 18% overnight!?? \

Can you send me the version you are testing with your filters (or is it one of Ron's 'ofiicial' versions)?

-Derk (with only one "e" ;-)

----- Original Message ----
From: Ben Nachtrieb <mountainclimber11@ yahoo.com>
To: MetaTrader_Experts_ and_Indicators@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Wednesday, October 18, 2006 1:46:45 PM
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] HELP! bolltrade v3h2 with ben's rec. filters running?

Derek,

I found the compounding was beneficial with the vol. filters I have in place. Yes, 0.01 lots...my thought was no need to come out of the gates hard with something that has backwards money management and with compounding on despite Ron's recommendation to do otherwise... ..call me conservative. : ) Is there some reason I should not use 0.01 lots? The lots reflect the balance I have in this particular account=very small. : ) To me this is a risky EA so I am acting accordingly.

But something is amiss with the lots...when lots are 0.01 it trades .03 lots and never increases or changes the lots. I have only been skimming through posts about dividing by 0....is this associated with this problem? I'd like to increase lots as balance increases.

Despite having lots at 0.01 I have increase my balance by 18% trading just last night to present. : ) No losses yet and my internet was down for a few hours before and during CPI news this morning... I planned to demo only during CPI news to test the vol. filters but was foiled by the internet connection. So basically the volume filters are largely untested (forward) because I was out for news. Unless someone else was using them too? I think the next big news is on the 20th. I'll stop the live account during news, demo through news and see how my vol. filter preforms.... just to be on the safe side. Who knows...not much on the line though with the balance I am using and the lots at 0.01. : )

regards

ben

mountainclimber

----- Original Message ----
From: Ash Woods <ashwoods155@ yahoo.com>
To: MetaTrader_Experts_ and_Indicators@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Wednesday, October 18, 2006 6:50:06 PM
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] HELP! bolltrade v3h2 with ben's rec. filters running?

Ben:

You still use compounding? I turned that off when Ron recommended it... seems a bit dangerous. But apparently you are also starting with .01 lot size? I have that set to 1. But I have v3h running for 3 days and it's up over 10%, without compounding. ..

-Derk

----- Original Message ----
From: Ben Nachtrieb <mountainclimber11@ yahoo.com>
To: MetaTrader_Experts_ and_Indicators@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Wednesday, October 18, 2006 8:29:03 AM
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] HELP! bolltrade v3h2 with ben's rec. filters running?

Sure. I'm running these settings (I refer to these settings, minus my changes, as the "15 million settings" because thats what they backtested at per Ron)  on a 4hr chart with Ron's bolltrade v3h2 with my 4 vol. filter modifications. You would have had to add VolumeMax1min and VolumeMax15min inputs....those are my input changes for my 4 vol. filters. (If you want the code for the 4 filters you can get it from my lasts 4 or 5 posts or wait for Ron to write it into the newest Bolltrade.)

// user input
extern double ProfitMade   =       8;    // how much money do you expect to make
extern double LossLimit    =      33;    // how much loss can you take
extern bool   Compounding =     true;    // buy more as the distance outside the band increases
extern double VolumeMax1min    =   95;    // limit trading is volume exceeds this maximum
extern double VolumeMax15min    = 95; // limit trading is volume exceeds this maximum
extern double BDistance    =      7;    // plus how much
extern int    BPeriod      =      1; &nb! sp; // Bollinger period
extern int    Deviation    =       3;    // Bollinger deviation
extern double Lots         =       0.01; // how many lots to trade at a time
extern bool   LotIncrease =    true ;   // grow lots based on balance = true
extern bool   logging      =   false ;   // log data or not
extern bool   logerrs      =   false ;   // log errors or not
extern bool   logtick      =   false ;   // log tick data while orders open (or not)

regards,

ben

mountainclimber

----- Original Message ----
From: Berdj Ghazarian <berdj1@yahoo. com>
To: MetaTrader_Experts_ and_Indicators@ yahoogroups. com
Sent: Wednesday, October 18, 2006 2:41:08 PM
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] HELP! bolltrade v3h2 with ben's rec. filters running?

Hi Ben

Would you be so kind as to share your setttings.

There are alot of variables.

Am running test now but it has been 3 days and the tests are not finished.

Tks

Berdj

Ben Nachtrieb <mountainclimber11@ yahoo.com> wrote:

Due to a bad internet connection I was unable to run my EAs during CPI news at 1230gmt. This was going to be a good test of the vol. filters I have been talking about too!

Anyway, did anyone have bolltrader v3h2 running on a 4 hr chart with Ron's 15 million settings and with my recommended 4 vol. filters (using one min and 15 min. vol. bars) by chance? Or maybe you just had 2 of the 4 vol. filters going? Either way if you did I'd be really interested in how the filters performed during news. If you are able PLEASE post or send me your trades from say around 11gmt to 1330gmt so I can analyze them.....that would be great! If you could indicate what you had, VolumeMax or VolumeMax1min and VolumeMax15min set at, what broker you were using and what changes if any you made to the vol. filters and/or EA.

My first trade was opened at 10/17 1906gmt and my last trade was opened at 10/18 904gmt....during that time I had about 24 positive trades (the last 4 trades were closed mannually by my broker once I figured out my connection was down)....This was a live/real money test. My plan was to turn off the live account during CPI news and turn on my demo account to see how the filters ran during news without risking $$. But I do suspect the EA, with the 4 vol. filters would have worked pretty good during the news....I would just like proof prior to running it live during news.....

thanks for any help!

ben

mountainclimber

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