----- Original Message -----

Sent: Sunday, December 24, 2006 1:34 PM

Subject: Re: [Divergence] Fwd: EURJPY count

Hello Chin,

Thank you for your note and analysis of the above mentioned pair.

I attach a daily chart of this pair for consideration.

There are four fib. retracements and one fib. expansion which are pertinent to this period shown on the HA candle price chart. I prefer and use AO and AC as shown on the chart for EW count. AO recognizes longer period EWs, AC shorter periods. These indicators are easier to use and understand than standard MACD. The use of Fib analysis and EW count is important. Easy visibility of all pertinent indicators and lines are important to an understanding of their use.

The first Fib retracement study begins at point zero on the chart and moves to the high at the end of Wave one as noted on the AO oscillator. During this Wave AC counts 5 smaller waves constituting Wave one formation. Both AO and AC recognized negative divergences at Wave one high suggesting the probable commencement of corrective Wave 2.

From the high at Wave one price moves to Wave two low which is approximately 61.8 retracement as measured on the initial fib. lines. No HA candle closed below 61.8 which suggests the downtrend is medium weak. Wave two is a corrective Wave and its smaller components are counted by the AC chart as A-B-C. The Wave two low finds support for the second time at RSI 20 line.

The next Fib. retracement study begins at the Wave one high and moves to Wave two low. The analysist now understands that for this to be a valid termination of Wave two and the beginning of Wave three price must exceed the high at Wave two. Using the second Fib retracement, HA candles close above 75 and then ultimately close above 100 which confirms the beginning of Wave 3.

AO suggests we are now in an extended Wave 3 which began in Oct., 06, since we are seeing progressively higher AO values. AO will always trace highest Values at the Wave three high. Thereafter Wave five AO values will always trace lower values than Wave three. Wave three is more often an extended Wave as compared to Wave one and five.

Once the analysist confirms Wave three it is then appropriate to place Fib. expansion studies on the chart. Expansion study allows us to place probable fib. wave three end at 161.8. This study begins at point zero and moves to the high at Wave one. The results are three FE lines as shown on the right edge of the chart. FE 100.0 initially served as resistance then later served as support as price has moved above FE 161.8 the expected high for Fib. wave three.

The third Fib. retracement study begins at Wave two low and moves to present high. The forth retracement study begins at point zero and moves to the current high. There has been no entrancement against either study. Wave four will often retrace between 38.2 and 61.8.

If Wave 3 is indeed an extended Wave as suggested we therefore anticipate a truncated Wave 5 which means Wave five high will close near Wave three high.

Loren

----- Original Message -----

From: Chin Pip

To: divergence@yahoogroups.com

Sent: Saturday, December 23, 2006 7:06 PM

Subject: [Divergence] Fwd: EURJPY count

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Chin Pip <pipwhisperer@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 23 Dec 2006 16:01:53 -0800
Subject: Fwd: EURJPY count
To: gmorlan@tampaby.rr.com

Loren:

I reworked my math and realized that I made a small error. The
5th wave is not an extended wave. That is to say: if I use 1.00 as
the number to stand for the length of waves 1 through 3, then, the
length of wave 5 is 0.618. (This relationship is shown by my picture
where I marked the fib expansion of 0.618 for Wave 5).

Another way to see this: again using 1-3 as 1.00; then 1
through 5 added all together would equal 1.618. These ratios are well
within the guidelines of a 5 wave.

With all that being said, the gist of my email has not
changed. . . ie if my count is correct, we appear to be nearing the
end of a five wave series on the EURJPY.

chin
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Chin Pip <pipwhisperer@gmail.com>
Date: Sat, 23 Dec 2006 13:33:07 -0500
Subject: EURJPY count
To: loren morlan <gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com>

Loren:

I have included a picture of my count on the EURJPY. I wonder if
wouldn't mind looking it over to see if you see the same count. To me, this
pair is nearing the end of W5 and I don't think I would want to enter at
this point--despite the fact that the trend is very strong. Sure, there may
be good intraday longs, but from a bigger time frame perspective, the upside
may be limited.

If you look at W5, it almost looks like a diagnal triangle.
Furthermore, W5 currently equals 61.8 of W1 through W3. This is the ratio
of an extended W5.

[For comparison, GBPJPY has a W5 that looks even more like a diagnal
triangle (not shown) ]

Thank you in advance,

Humbly, your student,

chin.

--
Chin, the pip-Whisperer

--
Chin, the pip-Whisperer

--
Chin, the pip-Whisperer

__._,_.___

Messages in this topic (1) Reply (via web post) | Start a new topic

For archives of Experts and Indicators from the MetaTrader Experts and Indicators Group
See http://www.lightpatch.com/forex

Change settings via the Web (Yahoo! ID required)
Change settings via email: Switch delivery to Daily Digest | Switch format to Traditional
Visit Your Group | Yahoo! Groups Terms of Use | Unsubscribe