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Tue, 01 Nov 2011 03:37:37 +0000 To: Message-ID: <001a01cc9847$952e4800$bf8ad800$@rr.com> X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook 12.0 Thread-Index: AcyYH4ZeLaw9TztgT9uhNbHBd/fgqQAJ8N4w Content-Language: en-us X-Originating-IP: 71.74.56.125 X-eGroups-Msg-Info: 1:5:0:0:0 From: "Loren Morlan" X-Yahoo-Profile: lorenmorlan X-eGroups-Approved-By: brseeger via web; 01 Nov 2011 03:39:57 -0000 Sender: Divergence@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list Divergence@yahoogroups.com; contact Divergence-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list Divergence@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Mon, 31 Oct 2011 22:37:29 -0500 Subject: FW: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 10/31/11, WEEKLY & DAILY, EW POSITIONS [1 Attachment] Reply-To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_001C_01CC981D.AC584000" ------=_NextPart_001_001C_01CC981D.AC584000 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit I attach weekly chart which was not recoverable in the first post. From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Loren Morlan Sent: Monday, October 31, 2011 5:51 PM To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com Subject: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 10/31/11, WEEKLY & DAILY, EW POSITIONS [1 Attachment] [Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan included below] Daily; Solid vertical lines mark impulse waves (5 waves) in the direction of the existing trend. Dashed vertical red lines mark counter trend corrective waves (3 waves). Fractals are observed at all waves and are objective historical facts. Impulse wave 1 RSI value above 30. Wave 2 counter trend retraced almost 100% of prior wave 1. Wave 2 is always a bear trap set for aggressive bulls. Bulls are long wave 2 thinking the previous uptrend will continue. Impulse wave 3 always reports lowest RSI value in a down cycle (highest in an up cycle). In addition MACD indicators report lowest values and 20 SMA (blue line) is always further separated (bears are most aggressive) from the 200 SMA (red line) than their respective positions at wave 5 (bears have lost strength). RSI traced a complex W below its 30 line suggesting price will later trace 1.128 to 1.618 for wave (C) low. Wave 4 is a profit taking period for bears in wave 3. Its retracement is typically less aggressive compared to wave 2 retracement. Wave 5 always reports a RSI and MACD CPD between waves 3 and 5. Wave 5 is also longer term corrective wave (A). See the EW pattern I have previously posted. The high of corrective wave (B) fractal has most probably been established. 786 retracement from wave 1 high. Price has traced two complete daily bars subsequent to (B) high. Wave (B) like wave 2 is another bear trap set for bulls. Wave (C) is probably presently under way. This issue will be resolved in the weekly period which follows below. (C) will be an impulse 5 wave. Weekly; Depending on the period examined, price in the EW structure reports a different position. Daily period established that price was probably starting corrective wave (C). Vertical solid line marks the low of wave 1 in the weekly period (wave 5 (A)) in the daily. Vertical dashed red line marks the probable high of wave 2 in the weekly (wave (B)) in the daily. Importantly there is no fractal yet formed at wave 2. One more weekly price bar must be traced below wave 2 high to generate a fractal wave 2. Wave 2 in the weekly is a longer term bear trap set for aggressive bulls. Wave (B) in the daily is also a bear trap. The worst possible time to be long equities. Comments; Price is seeking confirmation of wave 2 fractal high in the weekly period. Confluence of EW locations in the daily and weekly suggest price is at or near the commencement of Wave 3, the longest corrective wave in the weekly period. Wave 1 in the weekly was a 5 wave event as more clearly observed in the daily period. Wave 2 was a 3 wave corrective cycle. These two price/fractal tracings suggest the current correction will be either a zigzag or a combination double or triple zigzag. See the "cheat sheet" I previously posted re the 8 different corrective patterns. Wave 3 will be a 5 wave event in the weekly. RSI will trace below 30 and probably trace a complex W below the 30 line as observed in the daily incident to wave 3 low. It is important to observe that price and pattern tracing in smaller periods will ultimately be observed in larger periods. See the QQQ in the monthly (longer price data available) which presently traces a bearish AB=CD price pattern at the high on 5/2/11. That high was a 38.2 retrace from the market high in 3/2000. This retrace suggests the bulls were weak longer term and that price would later close below the market low in 10/02. USDX will gain in value vs. EURO, Sterling, etc. Loren ------=_NextPart_001_001C_01CC981D.AC584000 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit  
[Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan included below]

I attach weekly chart which was not recoverable in the first post.

 

From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Loren Morlan
Sent: Monday, October 31, 2011 5:51 PM
To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Divergence] NASDAQ, 10/31/11, WEEKLY & DAILY, EW POSITIONS [1 Attachment]

 

 

[Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan included below]

Daily;

Solid vertical lines mark impulse waves (5 waves) in the direction of the existing trend.  Dashed vertical red lines mark counter trend corrective waves (3 waves).  Fractals are observed at all waves and are objective historical facts.

 

Impulse wave 1 RSI value above 30.  Wave 2 counter trend retraced almost 100% of prior wave 1.  

 

Wave 2 is always a bear trap set for aggressive bulls.   Bulls are long wave 2 thinking the previous uptrend will continue. 

 

Impulse wave 3 always reports lowest RSI value in a down cycle (highest in an up cycle).   In addition MACD indicators report lowest values and 20 SMA (blue line) is always further separated (bears are most aggressive) from the 200 SMA (red line) than their respective positions at wave 5 (bears have lost strength).   RSI traced a complex W below its 30 line suggesting price will later trace 1.128 to 1.618 for wave (C) low.

 

Wave 4 is a profit taking period for bears in wave 3.  Its retracement is typically less aggressive compared to wave 2 retracement.   

 

Wave 5 always reports a RSI and MACD CPD between waves 3 and 5.  Wave 5 is also longer term corrective wave (A).  See the EW pattern I have previously posted.

 

The high of corrective wave (B) fractal has most probably been established.   .786 retracement from wave 1 high.  Price has traced two complete daily bars subsequent to (B) high.   Wave (B) like wave 2 is another bear trap set for bulls. 

 

Wave (C) is probably presently under way.  This issue will be resolved in the weekly period which follows below. (C) will be an impulse 5 wave.

 

Weekly;

Depending on the period examined, price in the EW structure reports a different position.   Daily period established that price was probably starting corrective wave (C).

 

Vertical solid line marks the low of wave 1 in the weekly period (wave 5 (A)) in the daily. 

 

Vertical dashed red line marks the probable high of wave 2  in the weekly (wave (B)) in the daily.  Importantly there is no fractal yet formed at wave 2.   One more weekly price bar must be traced below wave 2 high to generate a fractal wave 2.  Wave 2 in the weekly is a longer term bear trap set for aggressive bulls.  Wave (B) in the daily is also a bear trap.  The worst possible time to be long equities.

 

Comments;

Price is seeking confirmation of wave 2 fractal high in the weekly period.   Confluence of EW locations in the daily and weekly suggest price is at or near the commencement of Wave 3, the longest corrective wave in the weekly period. 

 

Wave 1 in the weekly was a 5 wave event as more clearly observed in the daily period.  Wave 2 was a 3 wave corrective cycle.  These two price/fractal tracings suggest the current correction will be either a zigzag or a combination double or triple zigzag.  See the “cheat sheet” I previously posted re the 8 different corrective patterns.  Wave 3 will be a 5 wave event in the weekly.  RSI will trace below 30 and probably trace a complex W below the 30 line as observed in the daily incident to wave 3 low. 

 

It is important to observe that price and pattern tracing in smaller periods will ultimately be observed in larger periods.   

 

See the QQQ in the monthly (longer price data available) which presently traces a bearish AB=CD price pattern at the high on 5/2/11.   That high was a 38.2 retrace from the market high in 3/2000.  This retrace suggests the bulls were weak longer term and that price would later close below the market low in 10/02. 

 

USDX will gain in value vs. EURO, Sterling, etc.

 

Loren

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan

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