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Date: Thu, 4 Sep 2008 14:28:52 -0400
Subject: [MT_E and I] USD/CAD, 9/4/08,  FIBONACCI retracement objectively measures bull vs. bear in  a trend
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Although the monthly chart attached relates to longer term trend strength
issues, the same retracement principles applies to all periods considered.

 

Fibonacci retracement studies objectively measures the strength of bears and
bulls in a trend.  Devaluation of the US dollar vs. other major currencies
and the CAD began in 2002.

 

Four retracement periods  are placed on this chart, the date of each fractal
high is marked by red vertical lines.  The first and longest Fibonacci
period begins at the dollar fractal high on 1/1/02, and ends at the low on
11/1/07, and are blue lines on chart.  Presently  this study measures the
bulls strength in a forth retracement since the high.  There has not been a
HA candle close above 23.6 in the current retracement period.  John Hayden
and other authors indicate a retracement to 23.6 indicates a very strong
trend, in this instance, down.  The study actually measures the strength of
bulls to force higher prices and the bears selling into that rally.  When
the bulls are exhausted in the period the bears resume selling pressure on
price.

 

The three previous retracements were all less than 23.6 suggesting a very
strong down trend.

 

Three subsequent fractal highs are used to place retracement studies all to
the most recent low on 11/1/07.  Each of the subsequent studies place
relevant Fibonacci levels on the chart in different colors.  Each of these
horizontal price lines may act as resistance to higher price.

 

The most recent Fibonacci study began at the fractal high on 2/1/07, to the
low and is spring green in color.  The most recent HA candle high retraced
to 61.8 (spring green line), which level was nearly the same as the longer
term blue line 23.6 level mentioned previously.  These two different period
lines offer greater resistance to higher price.  In this chart period there
has been no current red HA candle and the issue of a completed retracement
is undecided.

 

Comments;

 

1.        If the very strong down trend is still operative then the trader
may expect the 23.6 and 61.8 resistance levels to be authoritative.  

2.       Weekly, daily and 4 hour periods offer insight to future price
action.

3.       Fibonacci retracement and extension studies objectively measures
the strength of bears and bulls in all time periods.

4.       Fibonacci retracement study projects expected, in this example,
downside targets.  In this regard the projected lower price is  high,
2/1/07, to low 11/1/07, added,  subtracted from the most recent high,
1.0776. (1.1815 + .9056 = 2.0931 - 1.0776 = 1.0155 projected target).
Failure to met projection means probable loss of strength in the trend.

Loren


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<div class="Section1">

<p class="MsoNormal">Although the monthly chart attached relates to longer term
trend strength issues, the same retracement principles applies to all periods
considered.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><o>&nbsp;</o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Fibonacci retracement studies objectively measures the
strength of bears and bulls in a trend.&nbsp; Devaluation of the US dollar vs. other
major currencies and the CAD began in 2002.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><o>&nbsp;</o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Four retracement periods&nbsp; are placed on this chart, the
date of each fractal high is marked by red vertical lines.&nbsp; The first and
longest Fibonacci period begins at the dollar fractal high on 1/1/02, and ends
at the low on 11/1/07, and are blue lines on chart.&nbsp; Presently&nbsp; this
study measures the bulls strength in a forth retracement since the high.&nbsp;
There has not been a HA candle close above 23.6 in the current retracement period.&nbsp;
John Hayden and other authors indicate a retracement to 23.6 indicates a very
strong trend, in this instance, down.&nbsp; The study actually measures the
strength of bulls to force higher prices and the bears selling into that
rally.&nbsp; When the bulls are exhausted in the period the bears resume
selling pressure on price.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><o>&nbsp;</o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">The three previous retracements were all less than 23.6
suggesting a very strong down trend.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><o>&nbsp;</o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Three subsequent fractal highs are used to place retracement
studies all to the most recent low on 11/1/07.&nbsp; Each of the subsequent
studies place relevant Fibonacci levels on the chart in different colors.&nbsp;
Each of these horizontal price lines may act as resistance to higher price.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><o>&nbsp;</o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">The most recent Fibonacci study began at the fractal high on
2/1/07, to the low and is spring green in color.&nbsp; The most recent HA
candle high retraced to 61.8 (spring green line), which level was nearly the
same as the longer term blue line 23.6 level mentioned previously.&nbsp; These
two different period lines offer greater resistance to higher price.&nbsp; In
this chart period there has been no current red HA candle and the issue of a
completed retracement is undecided.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><o>&nbsp;</o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Comments;<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal"><o>&nbsp;</o></p>

<p class="MsoListParagraph"><![if !supportLists]><span>1.<span style="font:7.0pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
</span></span><![endif]>&nbsp;If the very strong down trend is still operative
then the trader may expect the 23.6 and 61.8 resistance levels to be authoritative.&nbsp;
<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoListParagraph"><![if !supportLists]><span>2.<span style="font:7.0pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
</span></span><![endif]>Weekly, daily and 4 hour periods offer insight to
future price action.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoListParagraph"><![if !supportLists]><span>3.<span style="font:7.0pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
</span></span><![endif]>Fibonacci retracement and extension studies objectively
measures the strength of bears and bulls in all time periods.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoListParagraph"><![if !supportLists]><span>4.<span style="font:7.0pt &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
</span></span><![endif]>Fibonacci retracement study projects expected, in this
example, downside targets.&nbsp; In this regard the projected lower price is&nbsp;
high, 2/1/07, to low 11/1/07, added, &nbsp;subtracted from the most recent
high, 1.0776. (1.1815 + .9056 = 2.0931 &#8211; 1.0776 = 1.0155 projected target).&nbsp;
Failure to met projection means probable loss of strength in the trend.<o></o></p>

<p class="MsoNormal">Loren<o></o></p>

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