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Date: Tue, 23 Sep 2008 12:45:20 -0400
Subject: [MT_E and I] RE: USD/CHF, 9/23/08, 15 MINUTE
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Hello Senni.

Thank you for your notes re the above pair.  Longer term downtrend
ultimately controls price.

 

4 hour chart traces Bullish Butterfly.  Most recent HA candles are blue with
AC above zero increasing in value.  AO bars green, last three are increasing
in value.  Bulls Power set to lows show current bar above zero suggesting
bulls have increased interest in buy lows.  These facts suggest a retrace
which may retest highs in this period.  This bullish pattern requires
respect and implies its result, if completed will be observed in the daily
period.

 

15 minute chart is attached.  

 

This period traces an AO indicator Bearish AB and BC legs of the Gartley
AB=CD pattern.  When D high occurs price will move lower.  Although not on
chart Bulls Power was positive during the AB leg, negative in the CD leg and
now positive as the CD leg is forming.

 

AB leg was 52 bars, 170 pips.  40% of time CD leg will equal the AB leg, 60%
of time CD will be extended.  Currently take profit (shown on chart) is set
to 170 pips from point C low but may be adjusted upward if an extension
occurs at point D.

 

RSI is above 50 (suggests higher price in the period) and AO is above zero
when this paper was prepared.  B high is resistance and if price does not
break above that level the pattern fails in the period but not necessarily
in the 4 hour..

 

Loren

 

From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of
Seeni J G
Sent: Tuesday, September 23, 2008 12:41 AM
To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] USD/CAD, 9/20/08, 1, 4 HOUR AND DAILY charts

 

Hi Loren,

Firstly, many thanks for sharing your insights with such detailed technical
analysis. The amount of effort to dissect these charts first and then to
share it without any reservations to the general public is much appreciated.


I have been studying and applying different strategies to trade the gartley
patterns since the last few weeks. Your analysis has been really intriguing
and though you have mentioned that no one actually cares about it, it is
probably because, at least speaking for myself, i have been studying more of
what it actually means rather than wanting to comment on it! So, long story
short, i have done enough work(i believe) and have started demo trading with
this analysis since the start of this week.

I took 2 currencies which formed the pattern. USD/CAD by your paper and the
USD/CHF.

I had tight swing stop losses on USD/CAD but like you had mentioned, both
long term(daily) and mid term(4h) patterns were conflicting. I therefore got
stopped out on both trades that i went. One which i went short first and the
market went long during Lon market yday. Then when i had assumed the market
was going long with the mid term bullish pattern evident and went long,
market reversed during US session and took out my stop loss at 1.0463 level
with the market having since moved about 130 pips to its current price level
at 1.0330. In summary, i couldn't enjoy this movement but contemplating
another entry should the 50% fib level see through. Do you think this is
advisable?

On the other trade i took, i recognised a very long term bearish pattern
appearing with the USD/CHF. It was forming since end last year and it just
completed the bearish butterfly almost a week ago and u/c has been taking
some time to break down. With good momentum picking up after confirmation
with fib levels and long term MAs, It finally started trickling down and i
took a short(1.0954) during yday's US session. I am now sitting on 180 odd
pips profit. Would you be able to confirm this pattern and eventhough i have
locked in nice profits to allow for some retracement, i would be curious to
see where you think this might end up and possibly be a good take profit
level? My 50% fib level is at 1.0590 and that seems like a good T/P target
for me. However, i am curious to know if the Gartley patterns can project a
possible T/P level on this too?

Thanks again.

Take Care & God bless,
Seeni



On Sun, Sep 21, 2008 at 11:54 PM, Loren Morlan <gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com>
wrote:

Four charts will be posted, two to this paper and two to the next paper.

 

The various versions of the ZUP indicators and price patterns traced are
discussed by Pesavento, Gartley and other authors.  The specific detail of
patterns may be studied in their books or at  Harmonic Trader.com, and other
internet sites.

 

DAILY;

Traces a bearish butterfly in yellow.  This pattern started 1/20/08, at
point X not seen on this chart.  X to D is 1.618 extension of X to A.
Toping pattern has started at D.  Bulls Power buying at lows is decreasing,
however still above its zero line/positive.  RSI is below 50 and pointed
down.

 

Three relevant Fibonacci retracements studies are placed on chart and serve
as potential support levels.  The three vertical red lines mark the
beginning of each.  Price has most recently tested fractal low at 1.0410
noted on chart at 38.2 magenta line.  AB was 23 bars, 624 pips. CD leg was
an extended  81 bars, 1009 pips.  In the daily period this pattern suggests
price may retest any of the lows or an extension lower.

 

4 HOUR;

Traces a Bullish Bat in yellow.  The various parameters of the pattern are
circled in red.  CD leg was  extended compared to AB leg.   RSI, a different
indicator traces a RPD between X and D lows which agrees with the ZUP price
pattern.  There is concurrence of dissimilar indicators with respect to
future price action.   This pair has been in an uptrend since 11/4/07, and
the RPD offers an opportunity to joint an existing trend.   The latest Bulls
Power bar is approximately three times the size of the previous bar and
suggests bulls buying the lows of this bar.

 

This bullish pattern conflicts with the bearish daily pattern.  The longer
term bearish pattern is probably controlling.  The 4 hour indicators
suggests price will retrace from D.  Fibonacci levels are present.  

 

Two additional charts are attached to the next paper.

 

Loren




-- 
Take Care & God Bless,
Seeni J G

 


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<div class=3DSection1>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Hello Senni.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Thank you for your notes re the above pair.&nbsp; Longer ter=
m
downtrend ultimately controls price.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>4 hour chart traces Bullish Butterfly.&nbsp; Most recent HA
candles are blue with AC above zero increasing in value.&nbsp; AO bars gree=
n,
last three are increasing in value.&nbsp; Bulls Power set to lows show curr=
ent
bar above zero suggesting bulls have increased interest in buy lows.&nbsp;
These facts suggest a retrace which may retest highs in this period.&nbsp; =
This
bullish pattern requires respect and implies its result, if completed will =
be
observed in the daily period.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>15 minute chart is attached.&nbsp; <o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>This period traces an AO indicator Bearish AB and BC legs of=
 the
Gartley AB=3DCD pattern.&nbsp; When D high occurs price will move lower.&nb=
sp;
Although not on chart Bulls Power was positive during the AB leg, negative =
in
the CD leg and now positive as the CD leg is forming.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>AB leg was 52 bars, 170 pips.&nbsp; 40% of time CD leg will
equal the AB leg, 60% of time CD will be extended.&nbsp; Currently take pro=
fit
(shown on chart) is set to 170 pips from point C low but may be adjusted up=
ward
if an extension occurs at point D.<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>RSI is above 50 (suggests higher price in the period) and AO=
 is
above zero when this paper was prepared.&nbsp; B high is resistance and if
price does not break above that level the pattern fails in the period but n=
ot
necessarily in the 4 hour..<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'>Loren<o:p></o:p></span></p>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'font-size:11.0pt;font-family:"Calibri",=
"sans-serif";
color:#1F497D'><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></span></p>

<div>

<div style=3D'border:none;border-top:solid #B5C4DF 1.0pt;padding:3.0pt 0in =
0in 0in'>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><b><span style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma=
","sans-serif"'>From:</span></b><span
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;font-family:"Tahoma","sans-serif"'>
MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
[mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] <b>On Behalf Of =
</b>Seeni
J G<br>
<b>Sent:</b> Tuesday, September 23, 2008 12:41 AM<br>
<b>To:</b> MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com<br>
<b>Subject:</b> Re: [MT_E and I] USD/CAD, 9/20/08, 1, 4 HOUR AND DAILY char=
ts<o:p></o:p></span></p>

</div>

</div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><o:p>&nbsp;</o:p></p>

<div id=3Dygrp-mlmsg>

<div id=3Dygrp-msg>

<div id=3Dygrp-text>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'margin-bottom:12.0pt'>Hi Loren,<br>
<br>
Firstly, many thanks for sharing your insights with such detailed technical
analysis. The amount of effort to dissect these charts first and then to sh=
are
it without any reservations to the general public is much appreciated. <br>
<br>
I have been studying and applying different strategies to trade the gartley
patterns since the last few weeks. Your analysis has been really intriguing=
 and
though you have mentioned that no one actually cares about it, it is probab=
ly
because, at least speaking for myself, i have been studying more of what it
actually means rather than wanting to comment on it! So, long story short, =
i
have done enough work(i believe) and have started demo trading with this
analysis since the start of this week.<br>
<br>
I took 2 currencies which formed the pattern. USD/CAD by your paper and the
USD/CHF.<br>
<br>
I had tight swing stop losses on USD/CAD but like you had mentioned, both l=
ong
term(daily) and mid term(4h) patterns were conflicting. I therefore got sto=
pped
out on both trades that i went. One which i went short first and the market
went long during Lon market yday. Then when i had assumed the market was go=
ing
long with the mid term bullish pattern evident and went long, market revers=
ed
during US session and took out my stop loss at 1.0463 level with the market
having since moved about 130 pips to its current price level at 1.0330. In
summary, i couldn't enjoy this movement but contemplating another entry sho=
uld
the 50% fib level see through. Do you think this is advisable?<br>
<br>
On the other trade i took, i recognised a very long term bearish pattern
appearing with the USD/CHF. It was forming since end last year and it just
completed the bearish butterfly almost a week ago and u/c has been taking s=
ome
time to break down. With good momentum picking up after confirmation with f=
ib
levels and long term MAs, It finally started trickling down and i took a
short(1.0954) during yday's US session. I am now sitting on 180 odd pips
profit. Would you be able to confirm this pattern and eventhough i have loc=
ked
in nice profits to allow for some retracement, i would be curious to see wh=
ere
you think this might end up and possibly be a good take profit level? My 50=
%
fib level is at 1.0590 and that seems like a good T/P target for me. Howeve=
r, i
am curious to know if the Gartley patterns can project a possible T/P level=
 on
this too?<br>
<br>
Thanks again.<br>
<br>
Take Care &amp; God bless,<br>
Seeni<br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>

<div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal>On Sun, Sep 21, 2008 at 11:54 PM, Loren Morlan &lt;<a
href=3D"mailto:gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com">gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com</a>&gt; wro=
te:<o:p></o:p></p>

<div>

<div>

<div>

<div>

<div>

<p style=3D'background:white'>Four charts will be posted, two to this paper=
 and
two to the next paper.<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>The various versions of the ZUP indicators an=
d
price patterns traced are discussed by Pesavento, Gartley and other
authors.&nbsp; The specific detail of patterns may be studied in their book=
s or
at &nbsp;Harmonic Trader.com, and other internet sites.<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>DAILY;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>Traces a bearish butterfly in yellow.&nbsp; T=
his
pattern started 1/20/08, at point X not seen on this chart.&nbsp; X to D is
1.618 extension of X to A.&nbsp; &nbsp;Toping pattern has started at D.&nbs=
p;
Bulls Power buying at lows is decreasing, however still above its zero
line/positive.&nbsp; RSI is below 50 and pointed down.<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>Three relevant Fibonacci retracements studies=
 are
placed on chart and serve as potential support levels.&nbsp; The three vert=
ical
red lines mark the beginning of each.&nbsp; Price has most recently tested
fractal low at 1.0410 noted on chart at 38.2 magenta line.&nbsp; AB was 23
bars, 624 pips. CD leg was an extended &nbsp;81 bars, 1009 pips.&nbsp; In t=
he
daily period this pattern suggests price may retest any of the lows or an
extension lower.<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>4 HOUR;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>Traces a Bullish Bat in yellow.&nbsp; The var=
ious
parameters of the pattern are circled in red.&nbsp; CD leg was &nbsp;extend=
ed
compared to AB leg.&nbsp;&nbsp; RSI, a different indicator traces a RPD bet=
ween
X and D lows which agrees with the ZUP price pattern.&nbsp; There is
concurrence of dissimilar indicators with respect to future price action.
&nbsp;&nbsp;This pair has been in an uptrend since 11/4/07, and the RPD off=
ers
an opportunity to joint an existing trend.&nbsp; &nbsp;The latest Bulls Pow=
er
bar is approximately three times the size of the previous bar and suggests
bulls buying the lows of this bar.<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>This bullish pattern conflicts with the beari=
sh
daily pattern.&nbsp; The longer term bearish pattern is probably
controlling.&nbsp; The 4 hour indicators suggests price will retrace from
D.&nbsp; Fibonacci levels are present.&nbsp; <o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>Two additional charts are attached to the nex=
t
paper.<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>&nbsp;<o:p></o:p></p>

<p style=3D'background:white'>Loren<o:p></o:p></p>

</div>

</div>

</div>

</div>

</div>

</div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><br>
<br clear=3Dall>
<br>
-- <br>
Take Care &amp; God Bless,<br>
Seeni J G<o:p></o:p></p>

</div>

</div>

<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'color:white'></span> <o:p></o:p></p>

</div>

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------=_NextPart_000_0019_01C91D7A.3DAD8F50--


