X-Account-Key: account3 X-UIDL: 1200856821.002 X-Mozilla-Status: 0011 X-Mozilla-Status2: 10000000 X-Mozilla-Keys: Received: from n30a.bullet.scd.yahoo.com by genie.lightpatch.com id aa22089; 20 Jan 2008 11:17 PST Comment: DomainKeys? See http://antispam.yahoo.com/domainkeys DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; q=dns; c=nofws; s=lima; d=yahoogroups.com; b=WXeCps4MGMTWyWNPwd4bKpyxitkKWRQckXpwO2EB184Rk2DgfslwJ+yGGs725k2lM8tzMrW2BmWAi0IKhFGUT8A52fPJXOXoQduxA/fNCK4giWXltDSKw4g3DcaASP8c; Received: from [66.218.69.6] by n30.bullet.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 20 Jan 2008 19:16:29 -0000 Received: from [66.218.67.109] by t6.bullet.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 20 Jan 2008 19:16:29 -0000 X-Yahoo-Newman-Id: 12111071-m76846 X-Sender: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com X-Apparently-To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com X-Received: (qmail 15436 invoked from network); 20 Jan 2008 19:16:26 -0000 X-Received: from unknown (66.218.67.95) by m45.grp.scd.yahoo.com with QMQP; 20 Jan 2008 19:16:26 -0000 X-Received: from unknown (HELO hrndva-omtalb.mail.rr.com) (71.74.56.123) by mta16.grp.scd.yahoo.com with SMTP; 20 Jan 2008 19:16:26 -0000 X-Received: from lorenzy5yllpkh ([72.184.17.31]) by hrndva-omta01.mail.rr.com with ESMTP id <20080120191624.ZVDM11942.hrndva-omta01.mail.rr.com@lorenzy5yllpkh>; Sun, 20 Jan 2008 19:16:24 +0000 To: References: <001501c85aec$a9d6d6b0$fd848410$@rr.com> <045901c85af7$06fb8cf0$0202a8c0@ACER> <003101c85afc$403d5980$c0b80c80$@rr.com> <047b01c85b8f$b3bb59f0$0202a8c0@ACER> In-Reply-To: <047b01c85b8f$b3bb59f0$0202a8c0@ACER> Message-ID: <005501c85b98$f0da63e0$d28f2ba0$@rr.com> X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook 12.0 Thread-Index: Achbj7l1mM0sPpAPREuIoMrvFmD+3QABbTJg Content-Language: en-us X-Originating-IP: 71.74.56.123 X-eGroups-Msg-Info: 1:12:0:0:0 From: Loren Morlan X-Yahoo-Profile: lorenmorlan Sender: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com; contact MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Sun, 20 Jan 2008 14:16:18 -0500 Subject: RE: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short? X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Reply-To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0056_01C85B6F.08045BE0" X-Antivirus: AVG for E-mail 7.5.516 [269.19.7/1234] ------=_NextPart_000_0056_01C85B6F.08045BE0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0057_01C85B6F.08045BE0" ------=_NextPart_001_0057_01C85B6F.08045BE0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Hi Brad, You have put your finger on the important reason for A/D use. Namely A/D is a lagging indicator compared to price which is obviously always the leader. All other indicators are mathematically altered versions of price some faster than others. When the analysist observes (one hour chart in this example) price behaving inconsistently with market accumulation values this strongly suggests misalignment of basic forces driving price. In this instance bears in the one hour are continuing to sell driving price lower while the slower accumulation forces are placing buying pressure on price which has not been recognized by shorter term traders. Price leads all indicators and in particular the slower A/D indicator. Price typically extends too far in each direction which extensions are identified by changes in either accumulation or distribution values. CPD between A/D and price are of utmost importance when they occur at the lower/upper LRC line in multiple time frames as demonstrated in my charts. Thank you for your response. Loren From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Brad Eckert Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2008 1:10 PM To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short? Hi Loren, I saw it after I had already replied. I tend to miss that interpretation but reality is the ad is continuing to rise against the latest retrace and I should pay more attention to that. AD does lag quite severely though. Thank you for your response. Brad ----- Original Message ----- From: Loren Morlan To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 7:34 PM Subject: RE: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short? Hello Brad, Good to hear from you and I hope all goes well. The A/D CPD is correct. The first fractal low on 1/10/8 @ 1.9664 is a higher low than the fractal low on 1/18/08 at 1.9512 (lower value). The lower A/D value at the higher low on 1/10/08 was - 27345. The later higher A/D value at - 23760 occurred when price low was lower. This is a classic class A positive divergence. I should have place a red vertical line or circled fractals on each date above mentioned. If you will do so on your chart you will see the CPD. A lower low (1/18/08) with a higher indicator value compared to a previous higher low (1/10/08) with a lower indicator value. I want to emphasize a long trade is dangerous now. I trade the 5 minute for profit but that requires my prompt attention to each HA candle. Thank you for your note. Loren From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Brad Eckert Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 6:57 PM To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short? Hello Loren, On your 1hr chart, reference AD, how is that a CPD? Higher price, higher ad. To be a CPD would need lower price, higher AD. What am I missing here? Brad Agree with the rpd on AO ----- Original Message ----- From: Loren Morlan To: 'Al Snyder' Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 5:43 PM Subject: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short? Hello Al, I attach 5 charts, monthly, daily, 1 hour, 15 and 5 minute. I am a conservative trader and therefore only accept DDs consistent with trades made in the 5 or 15 minute periods. It is appropriate to examine the longer term trend (monthly) since they are the market makers. MONTHLY CHART; The Elliott Wave count in this chart is proposed by the analysist at Elliott Wave International. Assuming this count is correct price has started wave C, impulsive having 5 sub waves down. AO and AC last two monthly bars are red with AC below zero suggestive of further downside price. WEEKLY (NOT INCLUDED); 3 AO bars red below zero. AC below zero with last bar green suggesting higher price. DAILY CHART; Current price low is at or near the lower LRC line a point from which higher prices have historically occurred. Price has retraced below Fibonacci 76.3 suggesting the prior up cycle is weak and likely to not exceed the former high. There is objective evidence that the present retracement has ended at or near this level. A RPD is traced by AO as marked on chart. There is one prior historical RPD marked as # 1 from which higher prices followed. RPDs only occur in an uptrend. Most recently and active AO CPD is identified. Both AO and AC bars are green with increasing values. AC is above zero. A/D traces a longer term active CPD also identified on the chart. The mentioned different divergences, Fib. retracement level and LRC line suggests higher price in the daily period. ONE HOUR CHART; Current price low is at or near the lower LRC line in this shorter period with the same implication mentioned above with respect to price action. Fibonacci retracement in this period is also below 76.3. There is also objective evidence in this period that retracement has ended and higher price going forward. AO traces an active RPD which agrees with but is different than the RPD observed in the daily chart. AO has not yet traced an active CPD like the one in the daily. AC is green above zero. Last two AO bars green below zero. A/D traces a CPD. The red trend line placed on A/D shows an increasing period of "accumulation" (buying pressure on price) suggesting higher prices. 15 MINUTE CHART; A/D traces an active CPD. The red trend line of A/D traces higher values suggesting higher prices. AO and AC bars are green below zero, increasing values. 5 MINUTE CHART; A/D traces a current RPD. The red trend line confirms period of distribution in this period. A/D line has not started increased accumulation values in this period. A/D line should start showing increased values consistent with longer term A/D values which will offer a lower risk long position. Below fractal low at 1.9282 for S/L. Comments: Longer term down cycle. Daily and shorter time frames suggests an up cycle against the down trend and is therefore higher risk. RPDs and CPDs observed in shorter periods suggest an up cycle. Price at or near LRC lines in multiple periods suggest higher prices. Price may not have reached its low. AO has not yet traced a CPD in the one hour period as mentioned above. Trading the 5 minute and 15 minute AO and AC green lines 5 minute trades may occur. Prudent to wait until a definite up cycle is identified in the 30 minute period with AO above zero. Loren From: Al Snyder [mailto:snydersearch@msn.com] Sent: Friday, January 18, 2008 5:16 PM To: loren Subject: GBPUSD: Interested in your Opinion Loren: The price action in this pair is certainly supporting the notion that it is headed further south. The fundamentals support a rise in prices, and the lack of any movement after today's "economy boost" speech seems to support the bearish sentiment. Once again, the formation we presently have can easily be interpreted as part of an extended downward formation... A case can also be made for a temporary bottom. I do not see any strong signs of a rebound as of yet... Your analyses are always appreciated... Al AL SNYDER 410-695-1079 snydersearch@msn.com ------=_NextPart_001_0057_01C85B6F.08045BE0 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Hi Brad,

 

You have put your finger on the important reason for A/D use.  Namely A/D is a lagging indicator compared to price which is obviously always the leader.  All other indicators are mathematically altered versions of price some faster than others.

 

When the analysist observes (one hour chart in this example) price behaving inconsistently with market accumulation values this strongly suggests misalignment of basic forces driving price.  In  this instance bears in the one hour are continuing to sell driving price lower while the slower accumulation forces are placing buying pressure on price which has not been recognized by shorter term traders.  Price leads all indicators and in particular the slower A/D indicator.   Price typically extends too far in each direction which extensions are identified by changes in either accumulation or distribution values. 

 

CPD between A/D and price are of utmost importance when they occur at the lower/upper LRC line in multiple time frames as demonstrated in my charts.

 

Thank you for your response.

 

Loren

 

From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Brad Eckert
Sent: Sunday, January 20, 2008 1:10 PM
To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short?

 

Hi Loren,

I saw it after I had already replied. I tend to miss that interpretation but reality is the ad is continuing to rise against the latest retrace and I should pay more attention to that. AD does lag quite severely though. Thank you for your response.

 

Brad

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Loren Morlan

Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 7:34 PM

Subject: RE: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short?

 

Hello Brad,

Good to hear from you and I hope all goes well.

The A/D CPD is correct.  The first fractal low on 1/10/8 @ 1.9664 is a higher low than the fractal low on 1/18/08 at 1.9512 (lower value). 

The lower A/D value at the higher low on 1/10/08 was  - 27345.  The later higher A/D value at  – 23760 occurred when price low was lower.  This is a classic class A positive divergence.

I should have place a red vertical line or circled fractals on each date above mentioned.  If you will do so on your chart you will see the CPD. 

A lower low (1/18/08) with a higher indicator value compared to a previous higher low (1/10/08) with a lower  indicator value.

I want to emphasize a long trade is dangerous now.  I trade the 5 minute for profit but that requires my prompt attention to each HA candle.

Thank you for your note.

Loren

From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Brad Eckert
Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 6:57 PM
To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short?

Hello Loren,

On your 1hr chart, reference AD, how is that a CPD? Higher price, higher ad. To be a CPD would need lower price, higher AD. What am I missing here?

Brad

Agree with the rpd on AO

----- Original Message -----

From: Loren Morlan

Sent: Saturday, January 19, 2008 5:43 PM

Subject: [MT_E and I] RE: GBPUSD: TREND? long or short?

Hello Al,

I attach 5 charts, monthly, daily, 1 hour, 15 and 5 minute.  I am a conservative trader and therefore only accept DDs consistent with trades made in the 5 or 15 minute periods.  It is appropriate to examine the longer term trend (monthly) since they are the market makers.

MONTHLY CHART;

The Elliott Wave count in this chart is proposed by the analysist at Elliott Wave International.  Assuming this count is correct price has started wave C, impulsive having 5 sub waves down.

AO and AC last two monthly bars are red with AC below zero suggestive of further downside price.

 WEEKLY (NOT INCLUDED);

3 AO bars red below zero.  AC below zero with last bar green suggesting higher price.

DAILY CHART;

Current price low is at or near the lower LRC line a point from which higher prices have historically occurred. 

Price has retraced below Fibonacci 76.3 suggesting the prior up cycle is weak and likely to not exceed the former high.  There is objective evidence that the present retracement has ended at or near this level.

A RPD is traced by AO as marked on chart.  There is one prior historical RPD marked as # 1 from which higher prices followed.  RPDs only occur in an uptrend.  Most recently and active AO CPD is identified.

Both AO and AC bars are green with increasing values.  AC is above zero.

A/D traces a longer term active CPD also identified on the chart.

The mentioned different divergences, Fib. retracement level and LRC line suggests higher price in the daily period.

ONE HOUR CHART;

Current price low is at or near the lower LRC line in this shorter period with the same implication mentioned above with respect to price action.

Fibonacci retracement in this period is also below 76.3.  There is also objective evidence in this period that retracement has ended and higher price going forward.

AO traces an active RPD which agrees with but is different than the RPD observed in the daily chart.   AO has not yet traced an active CPD like the one in the daily.

AC is green above zero.  Last  two AO bars green below zero.

A/D traces a CPD.     The red trend line placed on A/D shows an increasing period of “accumulation” (buying pressure on price) suggesting higher prices.

15 MINUTE CHART;

A/D traces an active CPD.  The red trend line of A/D traces higher values suggesting higher prices.

AO and AC bars are green below zero, increasing values.

5 MINUTE CHART;

A/D traces a current RPD.  The red trend line confirms period of distribution in this period.  A/D line has not started increased accumulation values in this period.  A/D line should start showing increased values consistent with longer term A/D values which will offer a lower risk long position.  Below fractal low at 1.9282 for S/L.

Comments:

Longer term down cycle.  Daily and shorter time frames suggests an up cycle against the down trend and is therefore higher risk.

RPDs and CPDs observed in shorter periods suggest an up cycle.  Price at or near LRC lines in multiple periods suggest higher prices. 

Price may not have reached its low.  AO has not yet traced a CPD in the one hour period as mentioned above. 

Trading the 5 minute and 15 minute AO and AC green lines 5 minute trades may occur.

Prudent to wait until a definite up cycle is identified in the 30 minute period with AO above zero.

Loren

From: Al Snyder [mailto:snydersearch@msn.com]
Sent: Friday, January 18, 2008 5:16 PM
To: loren
Subject: GBPUSD: Interested in your Opinion

Loren:

The price action in this pair is certainly supporting the notion that it is headed further south. The fundamentals support a rise in prices, and the lack of any movement after today's "economy boost" speech seems to support the bearish sentiment.

Once again, the formation we presently have can easily be interpreted as part of an extended downward formation... A case can also be made for a temporary bottom. I do not see any strong signs of a rebound as of yet...

Your analyses are always appreciated...

Al

AL SNYDER
410-695-1079
snydersearch@msn.com

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