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Since that date we observe lower fractal low on 10/11/09 and lower fractal high on 11/15/09. RSI currently is below 50 at 48 with lower peaks and valleys. Multiple weekly MACD bars (7) are below the zero line, loss of momentum. Price is currently locked in a consolidation channel between the high on 8/2 and 10/11/09, low. Wave 4 in the weekly has probably begun but this is not yet conclusive. Price must break out to the downside below the prior low of the channel and RSI must fall to 40 or below for Wave 4 confirmation. Price may break out above the upper channel line in the weekly period. We do not have an RSI value at 70 or above in the weekly incident to the present suspected Wave 3 high. Accordingly the high of Wave 3 is suspect as not being the ultimate Wave 3 high. The present consolidation does not indicate the conclusive high of Wave 3 or the actual commencement of Wave 4. Price may retest the 8/2/09 high or higher. The problem with EW is that it does not tell us exactly when a Wave begins from a period of consolidation as that being traced in the weekly period. Monthly suggests price has begun Wave C therefore long trades would be considered higher risk except for shorter term periods. Loren From: Al Snyder [mailto:snydersearch@msn.com] Sent: Sunday, January 24, 2010 6:39 PM To: loren Subject: RE: [Divergence] GBP/USD daily analysis and movement [1 Attachment] Loren: The latest message is somewhat confounding... Been following this with interest... I totally agree on the mid/long term direction... It seems you are suggesting that we are still in the corrective wave upward in the shorter term, which is where I am... though I am awaiting the move downward in wave C... Do you believe the move downward has begun, or are you supporting the contention that the correction is not quite over? Please clarify... Albert _____ From: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com Subject: RE: [Divergence] GBP/USD daily analysis and movement [1 Attachment] Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2010 18:18:00 -0500 Hello Victor, Monthly/yearly period indicates price has probably traced the low of Wave A fractal low near Fib. 38.2. High of corrective Wave B retraced between 38.2 and 50.0 (5 to A) and suggests downtrend strength as indicated by percent of retracement to be medium strong. This implies price will easily exceed the low of Wave A. (80% of 5 to A subtracted from B, projected price target = 1.09148). Symmetrical move from 5 to A subtracted from B takes price to Fib. 61.8 at .91424. Price is tracing Wave C in the monthly period. RSI at 41 well below 50. MACD below its zero line, last two bars red. Last two HA candles are also red. Lowest RSI and MACD values since 1986. I attach expanded daily and monthly charts re EW count. The monthly EW count Wave C will likely control EW counts in shorter periods. Price is tracing Wave 4 in the daily. So far we have a fractal low above 38.2. Your chart analysis is good and I am glad you have found this procedure highly accurate. Loren From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Victor Velchev Sent: Friday, January 22, 2010 6:43 PM To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com Subject: [Divergence] GBP/USD daily analysis and movement [1 Attachment] [ Attachment(s) from Victor Velchev included below] Hello Mr. Loren, I've red with great interest your analysis and comments on the EUR/GBP on the 1 minute and the 15 minute charts. You surely also watch the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD movement because it usually has effect on that pair. I want to ask you for your opinion for the cable and I'm attaching a daily chart analysis of the pair. I use your method of approach because it is highly precise and accurate and I trust it. My point of interest is whether you also think that these calculations are correct and that the pair is in corrective wave C. Wave A was a five step zigzag, wave B was a 3 step zigzag and wave C might be a big leg down made of five smaller steps. There is a divergence between wave 5 top and the possible top of wave B which might signal the beginning of wave C, also there is a bearish AB=CD pattern which might put additional downward pressure on the pair. If this is correct a target can be placed with the symmetrical tool equal to 100% projection of wave A which is at 1.5413. Would you consider that my way of thinking is correct and that the movement down has commenced? Thank you very much for your opinion and time. Best wishes, Victor Velchev ------=_NextPart_000_0027_01CA9D49.DEAE2A90 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit  

Hello Al,

 

The fractal high on 8/2/09, in the weekly period is the probable high of Wave3.  Since that date we observe lower fractal low on 10/11/09 and lower fractal high on 11/15/09.  RSI currently is below 50 at 48 with lower peaks and valleys.  Multiple weekly MACD bars (7) are below the zero line, loss of momentum.  Price is currently locked in a consolidation channel between the high on 8/2 and 10/11/09, low.    Wave 4 in the weekly has probably begun but this is not yet conclusive. 

 

Price must break out to the downside below the prior low of the channel and RSI must fall to 40 or below for Wave 4 confirmation. 

 

Price may break out above the upper channel line in the weekly period.  We do not have an RSI value at 70 or above in the weekly incident to the present suspected Wave 3  high.  Accordingly the high of Wave 3 is suspect as not being the ultimate Wave 3 high.  The present consolidation does not indicate the conclusive high of Wave 3 or the actual commencement of Wave 4.  Price may retest the 8/2/09 high or higher.   The problem with EW is that it does not tell us exactly when a Wave begins from a period of consolidation as that being traced in the weekly period.

 

Monthly suggests price has begun Wave C therefore long trades would be considered higher risk except for shorter term periods. 

 

Loren

 

From: Al Snyder [mailto:snydersearch@msn.com]
Sent: Sunday, January 24, 2010 6:39 PM
To: loren
Subject: RE: [Divergence] GBP/USD daily analysis and movement [1 Attachment]

 

Loren:
The latest message is somewhat confounding... Been following this with interest... I totally agree on the mid/long term direction... It seems you are suggesting that we are still in the corrective wave upward in the shorter term, which is where I am... though I am awaiting the move downward in wave C... Do you believe the move downward has begun, or are you supporting the contention that the correction is not quite over? Please clarify...
 
Albert




 

From: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com
To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com
Subject: RE: [Divergence] GBP/USD daily analysis and movement [1 Attachment]
Date: Sun, 24 Jan 2010 18:18:00 -0500

Hello Victor,

Monthly/yearly  period  indicates price has probably traced the low of Wave A fractal low near Fib. 38.2.  High of corrective Wave B retraced between 38.2 and 50.0 (5 to A) and suggests downtrend strength as indicated by percent of retracement to be medium strong.  This implies price will easily exceed the low of Wave A.  (80% of 5 to A subtracted from B, projected  price target = 1.09148).   Symmetrical move from 5 to A subtracted from B takes price to Fib. 61.8  at .91424.  Price is tracing Wave C in the monthly period.  RSI at 41 well below 50.  MACD below its zero line, last two bars red.  Last two HA candles are also red.  Lowest RSI  and MACD values since 1986.

 

I attach expanded daily and monthly charts re EW count.    The monthly EW count Wave C will likely control EW counts in shorter periods.

 

Price is tracing Wave 4 in the daily.  So far we have a fractal low above 38.2. 

 

Your chart analysis is good and I am glad you have found this procedure highly accurate. 

 

Loren

 

 

From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Victor Velchev
Sent: Friday, January 22, 2010 6:43 PM
To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Divergence] GBP/USD daily analysis and movement [1 Attachment]

 

 

[Attachment(s) from Victor Velchev included below]

Hello Mr. Loren,

I've red with great interest your analysis and comments on the EUR/GBP on the 1 minute and the 15 minute charts. You surely also watch the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD movement because it usually has effect on that pair. I want to ask you for your opinion for the cable and I'm attaching a daily chart analysis of the pair. I use your method of approach because it is highly precise and accurate and I trust it. My point of interest is whether you also think that these calculations are correct and that the pair is in corrective wave C. Wave A was a five step zigzag, wave B was a 3 step zigzag and wave C might be a big leg down made of five smaller steps. There is a divergence between wave 5 top and the possible top of wave B which might signal the beginning of wave C, also there is a bearish AB=CD pattern which might put additional downward pressure on the pair. If this is correct a target can be placed with the symmetrical tool equal to 100% projection of wave A which is at 1.5413. Would you consider that my way of thinking is correct and that the movement down has commenced? Thank you very much for your opinion and time.

Best wishes,
Victor Velchev

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