X-Account-Key: account3 X-UIDL: 1223220478.000 X-Mozilla-Status: 0011 X-Mozilla-Status2: 10000000 X-Mozilla-Keys: Received: from n28a.bullet.sp1.yahoo.com by genie.lightpatch.com id aa14828; 5 Oct 2008 8:21 PDT Comment: DomainKeys? See http://antispam.yahoo.com/domainkeys DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; q=dns; c=nofws; s=lima; d=yahoogroups.com; b=LvuOnXwCSEgeE7G6pUwTEzvF0T4Ab/w8V7CAambZejpzJn/ZjUWhIWmFpTQKHTNq92V5/Md8d4dKiiqZyYeFxtWvNMUIHTlwsrSr7V5zPr5A8BzUGigM1znyk/3JbODH; Received: from [69.147.65.148] by n28.bullet.sp1.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 05 Oct 2008 15:20:28 -0000 Received: from [209.73.164.86] by t11.bullet.mail.sp1.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 05 Oct 2008 15:20:28 -0000 Received: from [69.147.65.150] by t8.bullet.scd.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 05 Oct 2008 15:20:28 -0000 Received: from [66.218.66.158] by t7.bullet.mail.sp1.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 05 Oct 2008 15:20:28 -0000 X-Yahoo-Newman-Id: 12111071-m86132 X-Sender: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com X-Apparently-To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com X-Received: (qmail 47222 invoked from network); 5 Oct 2008 15:20:25 -0000 X-Received: from unknown (66.218.67.94) by m54.grp.scd.yahoo.com with QMQP; 5 Oct 2008 15:20:25 -0000 X-Received: from unknown (HELO hrndva-omtalb.mail.rr.com) (71.74.56.124) by mta15.grp.scd.yahoo.com with SMTP; 5 Oct 2008 15:20:25 -0000 X-Received: from nunswen0cecy73 ([72.184.17.31]) by hrndva-omta02.mail.rr.com with ESMTP id <20081005152023.XYUU23636.hrndva-omta02.mail.rr.com@nunswen0cecy73> for ; Sun, 5 Oct 2008 15:20:23 +0000 To: References: <011f01c92675$fdb90500$f92b0f00$@rr.com> <603f8f3c0810050016n3cb3e40et36ad30bd00fe8aeb@mail.gmail.com> In-Reply-To: <603f8f3c0810050016n3cb3e40et36ad30bd00fe8aeb@mail.gmail.com> Message-ID: <002701c926fd$e3eaff60$abc0fe20$@rr.com> X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook 12.0 Thread-Index: AckmujtzqjrDphH+SXm0EGkTpTGxXgAQZkWA Content-language: en-us X-Originating-IP: 71.74.56.124 X-eGroups-Msg-Info: 1:12:0:0:0 From: Loren Morlan X-Yahoo-Profile: lorenmorlan Sender: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com; contact MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Sun, 5 Oct 2008 11:20:24 -0400 Subject: RE: [MT_E and I] EUR/USD, 10/04/08, near 8 year support level @ 1.3665 X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Reply-To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: multipart/related; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0028_01C926DC.5CD95F60" X-Antivirus: AVG for E-mail 8.0.173 [270.7.5/1708] ------=_NextPart_000_0028_01C926DC.5CD95F60 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0029_01C926DC.5CD95F60" ------=_NextPart_001_0029_01C926DC.5CD95F60 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Senni, thank you for the note. I recommend Frost and Prechter's book, "Elliott Wave Principle". In any time frame the market may be identified as being somewhere in the 5 wave pattern at the largest degree of trend, see page 21 of the mentioned book. In regard to these charts/analysis we want to know what the longest term wave cycle is. The count suggested may or may not be correct as mentioned in my paper. However critical support is recognized in the longest term chart available to us. Frankly Senni my charts and analysis requires an understanding of the Elliott Wave concepts described in Prechter's book. Loren From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Seeni J G Sent: Sunday, October 05, 2008 3:16 AM To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] EUR/USD, 10/04/08, near 8 year support level @ 1.3665 Loren, Thanks for the analysis and detailed explanation. Always in appreciation. I am curious as to how you would find the timeframe that conforms to the current wave formation? I mean 8 years is surely not an easy and common timeframe to analyse on. I am interested to know how you would start the picking point to start this analysis. Thanks for sharing. Regards, Seeni On Sun, Oct 5, 2008 at 7:07 AM, Loren Morlan wrote: Monthly, weekly and 1 hour charts are attached. Monthly; Point X low on 10/01/00, is the point of beginning for Elliott wave count in this period. Increasing RSI lows values marked with arrows follow motive/impulse wave 1 formation. MACD indicator (momentum) also follows wave 1, see the chart. Wave 1 was 50 bars, 5467 pips, the top of which is identified by a classic negative divergence traced by RSI and MACD, which introduced corrective wave 2. Red HA candles confirm beginning of wave 2. Corrective waves contains a three wave form identified as A,B and C which is identified by the RSI line(green). Wave 2 low is confirmed by RSI low value below 50 and MACD below its zero line. MACD traces two reverse positive divergences as marked on chart. The first occurs at wave 2 historical low with a value lower than prior higher MACD value. The second occurs at point 4 low and is current and active. With regard to wave 2 low, blue HA candles and green increasing MACD values introduces motive wave 3. During wave 3 formation RSI low values are again increasing as observed in wave one. Wave 3 was 29 bars, 4426 pips and is therefore smaller than wave 1. Wave 3 is never the shortest of the 3 impulse/motive waves. This means that future wave 5 must be shorter in pip value than wave 3 in order for this analysis to fulfill correctly. The low at point 4 shows RSI again below 50 which is an appropriate finding for a low of corrective wave 4. MACD has also fallen below its zero line incident to 4 low like the low for corrective wave 2. As indicated in the subject line above price has recently tested a critical support level established during the past eight years. In this respect the high of the price territory range of wave 1 was 1.3665, on 12/1/04. Further, the most recent Red HA candle (point 4) shows a low of 1.3701, only 36 pips above the prior level. The importance of this event is recognized because wave 4 low may not invade the price range of wave 1. The three important aspects of the 5 wave Elliott form is printed on the left side of chart. Should price fall below this important support level (and invade the price range of wave 1) the Elliott wave count marked on this chart will fail and therefore require another Elliott wave determination. The virtually identical low of wave 4 and high of wave 1 suggest that price has found support at or near this level. If this analysis is correct we may anticipate higher price. Furthermore, smaller time frames should show evidence of a bottom formation at this support level. Those charts will be reviewed later in this paper. There are three Fibonacci retracement studies placed on this chart which lines will also appear in shorter period charts. The first longer term begins a point X, magenta colored lines. The second begins at point 2 low, blue lines. Third, the next higher fractal low green lines on chart (red and green dots mark fractal lows or highs). All of these Fibonacci retracement studies are relevant to the issue of support in the monthly period. When two or more separate studies form the same level of support they are more significant. In this regard, circled in red on the right edge are two different period lines (50. and 61.8) blue and green lines suggest support at or near 1.3665. Weekly; RSI line (green in the upper window) traces a grossly apparent active reverse positive and classic positive divergences suggesting higher price. RSI low values during the majority of wave 3 shown of this chart shows low values above 50 which is essential for a healthy up cycle. RSI values at or near 25 in this period confirms corrective wave 4. The lower window indicator is similar to acceleration and is faster than the upper momentum indicator. It traces a CPD which agrees with the RSI indicator. This is a pattern consistent with a bottom formation and should be further confirmed in the hourly period. Hourly; RSI and the two lower indicators all suggest formation of a bottom pattern. RSI has not yet formed bottom lows at or above 50 nor has MACD (momentum) traced above its zero line currently. The 50. and 61.8 Fibonacci retracement lines are observed in this period near support. Comments; 1. The most recent red HA candle in the hour suggests lower price along with red values in the two lower indicators. Buy limit order may be considered. The lowest close has been 1.3747. 2. If the above analysis is correct a wave 4 low will occur near the 1.3665 area then wave 5 high will be shorter than wave 3. 3. All of the waves thus far observed in this 8 year Elliott wave cycle bear the correct relationship to those required by Elliott. Longer term cycles are often more reliable with respect to their accuracy. Loren -- Take Care & God Bless, Seeni J G ------=_NextPart_001_0029_01C926DC.5CD95F60 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit

Senni, thank you for the note.

 

I recommend Frost and Prechter’s  book, ”Elliott Wave Principle”. 

 

In any time frame the market may be identified as being somewhere in the 5 wave pattern at the largest degree of trend, see page 21 of the mentioned book.   In regard to these charts/analysis we want to know what the longest term wave cycle is.  The count suggested may or may not be correct as mentioned in my paper.  However critical support is recognized in the longest term chart available to us.  Frankly Senni my charts and analysis requires an understanding of the Elliott Wave concepts described in Prechter’s book.

 

Loren

 

From: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com [mailto:MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Seeni J G
Sent: Sunday, October 05, 2008 3:16 AM
To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [MT_E and I] EUR/USD, 10/04/08, near 8 year support level @ 1.3665

 

Loren,

Thanks for the analysis and detailed explanation. Always in appreciation.

I am curious as to how you would find the timeframe that conforms to the current wave formation? I mean 8 years is surely not an easy and common timeframe to analyse on. I am interested to know how you would start the picking point to start this analysis.

Thanks for sharing.

Regards,
Seeni

On Sun, Oct 5, 2008 at 7:07 AM, Loren Morlan <gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com> wrote:

Monthly, weekly and 1 hour charts are attached.

 

Monthly;

 

Point X low on 10/01/00, is the point of beginning for Elliott wave count in this period.  Increasing RSI lows values marked with arrows follow motive/impulse wave 1 formation.   MACD indicator (momentum) also follows wave 1, see the chart.  Wave 1 was 50 bars, 5467 pips, the top of which is identified by a classic negative divergence traced by RSI and MACD, which introduced corrective wave 2.   Red HA candles confirm beginning of wave 2.  Corrective waves contains a three wave form identified as A,B and C which is identified by the RSI line(green).  Wave 2 low is confirmed by RSI low value below 50 and MACD below its zero line.

 

MACD traces two reverse positive divergences as marked on chart.  The first occurs at wave 2 historical low with a value lower than prior higher MACD value.  The second occurs at point 4 low and is current and active.  With regard to wave 2 low, blue HA candles and green increasing MACD values introduces motive wave 3. 

 

During wave 3 formation RSI low values are again increasing as observed in wave one.  Wave 3 was 29 bars, 4426 pips and is therefore smaller than wave 1.  Wave 3 is never the shortest of the 3 impulse/motive waves.  This means that future wave 5 must be shorter in pip value than wave 3 in order for this analysis to fulfill correctly. 

 

The low at point 4 shows RSI again below 50 which is an appropriate finding for a low of corrective wave 4.   MACD has also fallen below its zero line incident to 4 low like the low for corrective wave 2.

 

As indicated in the subject line above price has recently tested a critical support level established during the past eight years.  In this respect the high of the price territory range of wave 1 was 1.3665, on 12/1/04.  Further, the most recent Red HA candle (point 4) shows a low of 1.3701, only 36 pips above the prior level.  The importance of this event is recognized because wave 4 low may not invade the price range of wave 1.  The three important aspects of the 5 wave Elliott form is printed on the left side of chart.  Should price fall below this important support level (and invade the price range of wave 1) the Elliott wave count marked on this chart will fail and therefore require another Elliott wave determination. 

 

The virtually identical low of wave 4 and high of wave 1 suggest that price has found support at or near this level.  If this analysis is correct we may anticipate higher price.  Furthermore, smaller time frames should show evidence of a bottom formation at this support level.  Those charts will be reviewed later in this paper.

 

There are three Fibonacci retracement studies placed on this chart which lines will also appear in shorter period charts.  The first longer term begins a point X, magenta colored lines.  The second begins at point 2 low, blue lines.  Third, the next higher fractal low green lines on chart (red and green dots mark fractal lows or highs).  All of these Fibonacci retracement studies are relevant to the issue of support in the monthly period.  When  two or more separate studies form the same level of support they are more significant.  In this regard, circled in red on the right edge are two different period lines (50. and 61.8) blue and green lines suggest support at or near 1.3665. 

 

Weekly;

 

RSI line (green in the upper window) traces a grossly apparent active reverse positive and classic positive divergences suggesting higher price.  RSI low values during the majority of wave 3 shown of this chart shows low values above 50 which is essential for a healthy up cycle.  RSI values at or near 25 in this period confirms corrective wave 4.

 

The lower window indicator is similar to acceleration and is faster than the upper momentum indicator.  It traces a CPD which agrees with the RSI indicator.  This is a pattern consistent with a bottom formation and should be further confirmed in the hourly period.

 

Hourly;

 

RSI and the two lower indicators all suggest formation of a bottom pattern.  RSI has not yet formed bottom lows at or above 50 nor has MACD (momentum) traced above its zero line currently.  The 50. and 61.8 Fibonacci retracement lines are observed in this period near support.

 

Comments;

 

1.        The most recent red HA candle in the hour suggests lower price along with red values in the two lower indicators.  Buy limit order may be considered.  The lowest close has been 1.3747. 

 

2.        If the above analysis is correct a wave 4 low will occur near the 1.3665 area then wave 5 high will be shorter than wave 3. 

 

3.        All of the waves thus far observed in this 8 year Elliott wave cycle bear the correct relationship to those required by Elliott.  Longer term cycles are often more reliable with respect to their accuracy.

 

Loren

 

 




--
Take Care & God Bless,
Seeni J G

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