X-Account-Key: account7 X-UIDL: 1263755192.19031.mail12,S=91556 X-Mozilla-Status: 0001 X-Mozilla-Status2: 10000000 X-Mozilla-Keys: Return-Path: Delivered-To: ron@1166093.1882787 Received: (qmail 19027 invoked by uid 78); 17 Jan 2010 19:06:32 -0000 Received: from unknown (HELO cloudmark1) (10.49.16.78) by 0 with SMTP; 17 Jan 2010 19:06:32 -0000 Return-Path: Received: from [98.136.45.97] ([98.136.45.97:40249] helo=n72d.bullet.mail.sp1.yahoo.com) by cm-mr4 (envelope-from ) (ecelerity 2.2.2.41 r(31179/31189)) with ESMTP id D7/05-00355-6BF535B4; Sun, 17 Jan 2010 14:06:32 -0500 DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; d=yahoogroups.com; s=lima; t=1263755189; bh=M6IZg5cS3ed/hJZ5k7z+qIsMaVyMe+aU0qgDGkin8vM=; h=Received:Received:X-Yahoo-Newman-Id:X-Sender:X-Apparently-To:X-Received:X-Received:X-Received:X-Authority-Analysis:X-Cloudmark-Score:X-Received:To:Message-ID:X-Mailer:Thread-Index:Content-Language:X-Originating-IP:X-eGroups-Msg-Info:From:X-Yahoo-Profile:Sender:MIME-Version:Mailing-List:Delivered-To:List-Id:Precedence:List-Unsubscribe:Date:Subject:X-Yahoo-Newman-Property:Reply-To:Content-Type; b=LLt5hethleSUiHRX1mNweIoZ5XgATuqQi1MYgT3OPVUfaCJ90R/jv/nS+OL3BzaWO4pL3Ze1oQpMdujWrpKbqRO40rTFV5+L678/nz3DO42gqk+B0VREvdb/Y3p+4nJz DomainKey-Signature: a=rsa-sha1; q=dns; c=nofws; s=lima; d=yahoogroups.com; b=pnRZoZ9Ftn0Yp1Nnz0Ha/RgZkGwYHDT83lMmulkLLtN/ubUarjHdXxhnQC1/uCVIbB+3ZoQI1FX/azY54IB+POcurLLJIbq3jrUrbb7WKIQK0aBe5SIzDPfQqJyGSj5F; Received: from [69.147.65.173] by n72.bullet.mail.sp1.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 17 Jan 2010 19:06:29 -0000 Received: from [98.137.34.39] by t15.bullet.mail.sp1.yahoo.com with NNFMP; 17 Jan 2010 19:06:29 -0000 X-Yahoo-Newman-Id: 12111071-m105749 X-Sender: gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com X-Apparently-To: metatrader_experts_and_indicators@yahoogroups.com X-Received: (qmail 54240 invoked from network); 17 Jan 2010 19:06:28 -0000 X-Received: from unknown (98.137.34.45) by m3.grp.sp2.yahoo.com with QMQP; 17 Jan 2010 19:06:28 -0000 X-Received: from unknown (HELO hrndva-omtalb.mail.rr.com) (71.74.56.123) by mta2.grp.sp2.yahoo.com with SMTP; 17 Jan 2010 19:06:27 -0000 X-Authority-Analysis: v=1.0 c=1 a=nEk5Gn1fov4A:10 a=TpCJP6b7a04nCIrygM0A:9 a=IPKojGR8DWjlgAWQQS0A:7 a=5u9Z6D6cIasWxK18IvWpLPMsQz8A:4 a=yMhMjlubAAAA:8 a=SSmOFEACAAAA:8 a=l4jOxSgid6qcFMKh_RcA:9 a=YQl1LowbuUtfaNep3YAA:7 a=FbfuYOkBawBwBnMNCCBIg3rfgBsA:4 a=0r0ywc1u07xHyQ-MrPkA:9 a=3lv_V30VdR5g-0MwaVePZa9SuXQA:4 a=HXjIzolwW10A:10 a=KHrOh-3aYJXtAklt:18 X-Cloudmark-Score: 0 X-Received: from [65.32.89.208] ([65.32.89.208:4421] helo=nunswen0cecy73) by hrndva-oedge02.mail.rr.com (envelope-from ) (ecelerity 2.2.2.39 r()) with ESMTP id E0/BA-24024-0BF535B4; Sun, 17 Jan 2010 19:06:27 +0000 To: Message-ID: <000901ca97a8$2a8eec30$7facc490$@rr.com> X-Mailer: Microsoft Office Outlook 12.0 Thread-Index: AcqXqClPzqt+nOkgR362BNp66OSUPg== Content-Language: en-us X-Originating-IP: 71.74.56.123 X-eGroups-Msg-Info: 1:12:0:0:0 From: "Loren Morlan" X-Yahoo-Profile: lorenmorlan Sender: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com; contact MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Sun, 17 Jan 2010 14:06:23 -0500 Subject: [MT_E and I] EUR/GBP, 1/16/10, 1 MINUTE Elliott Wave/Fibonacci analysis X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Reply-To: MetaTrader_Experts_and_Indicators@yahoogroups.com Content-Type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----=_NextPart_000_000A_01CA977E.41B8E430" X-Antivirus: AVG for E-mail 9.0.725 [270.14.147/2628] ------=_NextPart_000_000A_01CA977E.41B8E430 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_000B_01CA977E.41B8E430" ------=_NextPart_001_000B_01CA977E.41B8E430 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="us-ascii" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit Often day traders are reluctant to enter trades in longer periods because of uncomfortably large draw downs and stop loss level and length of time in a trade. Attached chart example uses the 1 minute period with Elliott Wave, RSI, MACD and Fibonacci analysis and is suggested as a viable method to control the mentioned issues. The most important initial issue/consideration regarding a trade is accurate determination of the location of the most recent price/candle in the EW cycle in the period being traded. How may the analysist make such determination? Multiple oscillators track progress of the EW cycle, including CCI, Stochastic, MACD and RSI. I prefer Wilder's RSI(14) and MACD mathematical interpretations of price presented on price chart along with pertinent levels identifying overbought and oversold conditions. The most recent candle is probably in Wave 5 in the 1 minute period although this is not yet conclusively established. RSI and Williams AO indicator (MACD) accurately trace impulse/motive Wave 3, corrective Wave 4 and the probable commencement of impulse/motive Wave 5. RSI is quicker than MACD/AO and did a better job of finding and tracing a CPD at Wave 2 low which introduced Wave 3, generally the longest Wave but never the shortest in the EW cycle. AO later traced bars above its zero line, a long/buy condition to take advantage of the longest Wave. Later RSI reported its highest value which generally identifies the high of Wave 3. AO traced a CND at the RSI high value and clearly warned of corrective Wave 4. In this example RSI argues price did NOT trace an extended wave 3, although this most often happens in Wave 3. On the other hand AO argues price did trace an extended wave. In my view RSI is the more accurate indicator in this issue. Nevertheless AO clearly traces loss of momentum between the two AO values. RSI high value was greater than 80, an overbought condition, while AO at the same time was reporting loss of momentum an important divergence between the two different indicators which accurately identifies the high of Wave 3. In the 1 minute period Wave 4 is not large enough to successfully trade. I prefer to avoid Wave 4 in longer periods also, but sometimes there may be exceptions to my non trade rule for this Wave. Wave 4 RSI value was below 40 and traced an important RPD, see the chart. Although not marked on chart AO also traced a similar RPD at fractal lows. There are three Fibonacci studies which are important to this analysis. The first is a retracement study which begins at point X to Wave 3 high, Fib. levels in blue center of chart. This study is important because of its implications for trend strength as indicated by percentage of retracement. Corrective Wave 4 only retraced to 38.2 circled in blue an indication that bulls were strong and were able to stop the decline at this relative shallow level. This retracement level suggest that price will easily exceed Wave 3 high with an upside target of X to 3 added to 4 low (88600). Magenta line is a projection of this anticipated high for Wave 5. The high end of the Magenta line may be visualized in the 5 minute period. Often when there is no extended wave 3 there will be an extended wave 5 which may be the scenario for this Wave 5. The second Fib. study is an expansion which begins at Wave 3 to Wave 4, Fib. values reported along chart right edge. Magenta line high in the 5 minute period shows Fib. 261.8 as the expected target for Wave 5. The third Fib. retracement study begins with the low on 11/17/09, seen in the daily period and shows the 100.0 level circled on the right chart edge in the 1 minute chart period. This shows a double bottom between these two distant points. A point from which higher price is often seen. In this respect Wave 3 occurs above this double bottom low, see the chart. Wave 4 low was unable to break below 88330 (longer term double bottom support) another objective indication of higher price in the 1 minute period. Comments; Prior posted charts of the 1 hour period on 1/10/10 and the daily of 1/14/10, identified the position of price within the EW cycles relating to each of those periods. They are relevant to the analysis in the 1 minute and must be considered before acceptance of a trade. The 1 hour period identified price in corrective impulse Wave C and 3 short positions. The daily period identified price at or near the low of wave 4 ( an instance when a trade may be made in the less than desirable Wave). Those analysis pointed out that in the monthly period price had likely made the low of Wave 4 and was at or near commencement of Wave 5. The three shorts were closed shortly after price traced the double bottom, an example of successful trades against the longer term up cycle. Use of the two indicators and Fibonacci studies demonstrated allows for the correct location of price in the EW cycles of multiple periods. If the analysist does not know where price is located in the various periods a trade should not be made. Conversations with my knowledgeable trading friends always begins with the question/issue of where price is located in the EW cycle. With respect to the long trade in the 1 minute period, stop loss is just below Wave 4 low, a relatively small loss. It is possible that price may trace a lower Wave 4. Most retracements are between 38.2 and 61.8. Should this occur I can re-enter at the lower Fib. level and still participate in Wave 5 in this 1 minute period. When trading the 1 minute period only Waves 3, 5, A and C (impulse waves) should be traded. Loren ------=_NextPart_001_000B_01CA977E.41B8E430 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit  

Often day traders are reluctant to enter trades in longer periods because of uncomfortably large draw downs and stop loss level  and length of time in a trade.  Attached chart example uses the 1 minute period with Elliott Wave, RSI, MACD and Fibonacci analysis and is suggested as a viable method to control the mentioned issues.

 

The most important initial issue/consideration regarding a trade is accurate determination of the location of the most recent price/candle in the EW cycle in the period being traded.   How may the analysist make such determination?  Multiple oscillators track progress of the EW cycle, including CCI, Stochastic, MACD and RSI.  I prefer Wilder’s RSI(14) and MACD mathematical interpretations of price presented on price chart along with pertinent levels identifying overbought and oversold conditions.

 

The most recent candle is probably in Wave 5 in the 1 minute period although this is not yet conclusively established.  RSI and Williams AO indicator (MACD) accurately trace impulse/motive Wave 3, corrective Wave 4 and the probable commencement of impulse/motive Wave 5.

 

RSI is quicker than MACD/AO and did a better job of finding and tracing a CPD at Wave 2 low which introduced Wave 3, generally the longest Wave but never the shortest in the EW cycle.  AO later traced bars above its zero line, a long/buy condition to take advantage of the longest Wave.  Later RSI reported its highest value which generally identifies the high of Wave 3.  AO traced a CND at the RSI high value and clearly warned of corrective Wave 4.   In this example RSI argues price  did NOT trace an extended wave 3, although this most often happens in Wave 3.  On the other hand AO argues price did trace an extended wave.  In my view RSI is the more accurate indicator in this issue.  Nevertheless AO clearly traces loss of momentum between the two AO values.  RSI high value was greater than 80, an overbought condition, while AO at the same time was reporting loss of momentum an important divergence between the two different indicators which accurately identifies the high of Wave 3.

 

In the 1 minute period Wave 4 is  not large enough to successfully trade.  I prefer to avoid  Wave 4 in longer periods also, but sometimes there may be exceptions to my non trade rule for this Wave.  Wave 4 RSI value was below 40 and traced an important RPD, see the chart.  Although not marked on chart AO also traced a similar RPD at fractal lows.

 

There are three Fibonacci studies which are important to this analysis.  The first is a retracement study which begins at point X to Wave 3 high, Fib. levels in blue center of chart.  This study is important because of its implications for trend strength as indicated by percentage of retracement.  Corrective Wave 4 only retraced to 38.2 circled in blue an indication that bulls were strong and were able to stop the decline at this relative shallow level.   This retracement level suggest that price will easily exceed Wave 3 high with an upside target of X to 3 added to  4 low (88600).  Magenta line is a projection of this anticipated high for Wave 5.  The high end of the Magenta line may be visualized in the 5 minute period.   Often when there is no extended wave 3 there will be an extended wave 5 which may be the scenario for this Wave 5.

 

The second Fib. study is an expansion which begins at Wave 3 to Wave 4, Fib. values reported along chart right edge.  Magenta  line high in the 5 minute period shows Fib. 261.8 as the expected target for Wave 5.

 

The third Fib. retracement study begins with the low on 11/17/09, seen in the daily period and shows the 100.0 level circled on the right chart edge in the 1 minute chart period.  This shows a double bottom between these two distant points.  A point from which higher price is often seen.  In this respect Wave 3 occurs above this double bottom low, see the chart.  Wave 4 low was unable to break below 88330 (longer term double bottom support) another objective indication of higher price in the 1 minute period.

 

Comments;

Prior posted charts of the 1 hour period on 1/10/10 and the daily of 1/14/10, identified the position of price within the EW cycles relating to each of those periods.   They are relevant to the analysis in the 1 minute and must be considered before acceptance of a trade.

 

The 1 hour period identified price in corrective impulse Wave C and 3 short positions.  The daily period identified price at or near the low of wave 4 ( an instance when a trade may be made in the less than desirable Wave).  Those analysis pointed out that in the monthly period price had likely made the low of Wave 4 and was at or near commencement of Wave 5.

 

The three shorts were closed shortly after price traced the double bottom, an example of successful trades against the longer term up cycle. 

 

Use of the two indicators and Fibonacci studies demonstrated allows for the correct location of price in the EW cycles of multiple periods.  If the analysist does not know where price is located in the various periods a trade should not be made.  Conversations with my knowledgeable trading friends always begins with the question/issue of where price is located in the EW cycle. 

 

With respect to the long trade in the 1 minute period, stop loss is just below Wave 4 low, a relatively small loss.  It is possible that price may trace a lower Wave 4.  Most retracements are between 38.2 and 61.8.   Should this occur I can re-enter at the lower Fib. level and still participate in Wave 5 in this 1 minute period. 

 

When trading the 1 minute period only Waves 3, 5, A and C (impulse waves) should be traded.   

 

Loren

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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For archives of Experts and Indicators from the MetaTrader Experts and Indicators Group, See http://www.ForexMT4.com/mt_yahoo/
.

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