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VhwX3qEVM1miI7DlXtQsHKZHR.Ku3uLDkxsk8QsS4wO9iK1..onKb7lHq5f0BbtbT6egf2Svl2dQlLoZPQeqefq0IWtT9WF7oAukAUfGDb6YonHzpRNBV8j6utsY_k_U58tQDj32RNl_HLDOn087EC9iXlaDjaRsaol9.Nphl4ElQLLGUsfCo6biLen4D_aEcUZO0Nu0Vu1IwNBVLoc9TVbNz.uORcjtXEJyYhLIMKy3vOsLd6oZBfDsIu2rH7SlP0c5ePkXsWHg8PhCSim_pcq0mC8BqKl1M9ERTs70dNoD748RDu.j_tIWNvDamI31NzHnn33bw3qqBOjwKGWKwFFnFoEfxVwtZGbO3_no9YXUyd96 X-Received: from [69.153.198.190] by web82603.mail.mud.yahoo.com via HTTP; Wed, 01 Apr 2009 16:04:39 PDT X-Mailer: YahooMailWebService/0.7.289.1 To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com In-Reply-To: <00ce01c9b315$9dd0ed10$d972c730$@rr.com> X-Originating-IP: 68.142.201.120 X-eGroups-Msg-Info: 1:12:0:0:0 From: Ray X-Yahoo-Profile: pip_seeker X-eGroups-Approved-By: rosstodd via web; 01 Apr 2009 23:06:42 -0000 Sender: Divergence@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list Divergence@yahoogroups.com; contact Divergence-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list Divergence@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Wed, 1 Apr 2009 16:04:39 -0700 (PDT) Subject: RE: [Divergence] USD/JPY, 4/1/09, W-D-4H, Elliott Wave count Reply-To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="0-1752270884-1238627079=:88940" X-Antivirus: AVG for E-mail 8.5.285 [270.11.35/2034] --0-1752270884-1238627079=:88940 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable sure Loren no problem, =C2=A0 =C2=A0 this is probably one of the best looking H/S patterns I've seen in quite so= me time as each side has "mirrored" itself so far.=20 =C2=A0 It will be interesting to see how it plays out... given we are so close to = big news with the G20 and NFP these could be the catalyst.=20 =C2=A0 alot of analysts are dollar bulls with the recent consolidation so that kin= da plays into it as well...=20 =C2=A0 additionally the move from 110.68 to 87.10 @ 68.8% retrace would put us at = 103.32=C2=A0 after that I think the next move down to challenge 87.10 will = resume... time will tell. --- On Wed, 4/1/09, Loren Morlan wrote: From: Loren Morlan Subject: RE: [Divergence] USD/JPY, 4/1/09, W-D-4H, Elliott Wave count To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com Date: Wednesday, April 1, 2009, 5:02 PM Ray, thank you for taking the interest and time to post your 4 hour chart r= e future price behavior.=C2=A0=C2=A0=C2=A0 I do appreciate your comments si= nce they raise an important issue.=C2=A0 Namely will the 4 hour inverse hea= d and shoulder pattern complete as predicted from such pattern?=C2=A0 Or wi= ll this normally bullish pattern fail to complete as expected?=C2=A0 Your c= hart example does depict a bullish inverse H&S pattern.=C2=A0 This pattern = predicts a minimum price rise of a distance equal to the head to neck added= to the neck, 103 to 104 as you observe. =C2=A0 I attach an expanded daily chart with two Fibonacci expansion studies and E= lliott Wave count.=C2=A0 This chart identifies the inverse H&S pattern refe= r to above.=C2=A0 Not all H&S patterns or Fibonacci studies complete as pre= dicted.=C2=A0=20 =C2=A0 The first Fibonacci study (green lines) shows the most recent retracement (= points 3 & 5) against the downtrend.=C2=A0 This retracement suggest the dow= n trend is of =E2=80=9Cmedium=E2=80=9D strength.=C2=A0=20 =C2=A0 The second and most recent retracement study measures the strength of the u= p cycle starting from the double bottom.=C2=A0 This study is important beca= use it suggests the uptrend is =E2=80=9Cstrong=E2=80=9D and that price will= easily exceed point 5 a distance of 4 to 5 added to point 5.=C2=A0 Thus fa= r price has not been able to exceed the double top at points 3 and 5, thus = suggesting a failure of the up cycle.=C2=A0 Fibonacci retracement and expan= sions studies are extremely important because they rely exclusively on raw = price data and no indicators or manipulation of price data. =C2=A0They are = completely objective in their predictive value.=C2=A0 When they fail to mee= t their prediction a trend change has occurred. =C2=A0 MACD and price trace the first 5 waves of the Elliott wave cycle.=C2=A0 Poi= nt 5 compared to point 3 generates a MACD CND and essential element.=C2=A0= =20 =C2=A0 Longer term an upright H&S pattern is partially complete as marked on the c= hart.=C2=A0 Price has recently formed the head at double top, points 3 and = 5. =C2=A0=C2=A0This pattern suggests lower price from the head and is param= ount when compared to a shorter 4 hour conflicting H&S pattern. =C2=A0 Understanding future price behavior requires its identification in the Elli= ott Wave time cycle which is actually controlling price.=C2=A0 In this inst= ance price in the weekly period has reached the probable high of Wave 1 and= if correct price will move lower incident to corrective Wave 2.=C2=A0 Wave= 2 will in most instances retrace between 38.2 and 61.8 although deeper ret= racements are possible and may occur in this example. =C2=A0 The most recent low at 87.10 appears to be EW 3 low (lowest MACD value thus= far) with price now in corrective wave 4 up.=C2=A0 =C2=A0When price exhaus= ts itself at 4 high (double top at 3 & 5 may be 4 high) point 5 will most p= robably be lower than its present low.=C2=A0 A double bottom may form longe= r term. =C2=A0 Thank you Ray for raising this =C2=A0important issue. =C2=A0 Loren =C2=A0 =C2=A0 From: Divergence@yahoogro ups.com [mailto:Divergence@ yahoogroups. com] On = Behalf Of Ray Sent: Wednesday, April 01, 2009 1:04 PM To: Divergence@yahoogro ups.com Subject: Re: [Divergence] USD/JPY, 4/1/09, W-D-4H, Elliott Wave count =C2=A0 look for a drop to 96.50=C2=A0 area=C2=A0then buy especially if RSI is at/n= ear 25.=C2=A0 target area 103-104=20 if stop is used set to sub 95.50 --- On Wed, 4/1/09, Loren Morlan wrote: From: Loren Morlan Subject: [Divergence] USD/JPY, 4/1/09, W-D-4H, Elliott Wave count To: Divergence@yahoogro ups.com Date: Wednesday, April 1, 2009, 8:29 AM Attached 3 period chart identifies probable truncated Wave 5 high in the da= ily period; which is high of Wave 1 in the weekly period.=C2=A0 My previous= post suggested that Wave 5 in the daily could be =C2=A0truncated. =C2=A0 Wave 5 has formed an apparent double top.=C2=A0 Longer term traders have th= us far prevented higher price in wave 5.=C2=A0=C2=A0 Weekly chart suggests = price has reached the high of Wave 1 which is represented in the daily as a= double top of Wave 5.=C2=A0=C2=A0 Stochastic in all three periods shows gr= een line below red suggesting a top in the daily and weekly periods. =C2=A0 Price should retrace in the daily between 38.2 and 61.8.=C2=A0 An extended = retracement may each .707 to 85.4.=20 =C2=A0=20 Comment;=20 =C2=A0=20 This chart example shows that Wave 5 truncated double top occurs because a = longer term Fibonacci cycle prevents its usual completion.=C2=A0 It is poss= ible that price may form a triple top to identify Wave 1 high in the weekly= Fibonacci cycle.=20 =C2=A0=20 Loren=20 =C2=A0=20 =C2=A0 --0-1752270884-1238627079=:88940 Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable

=
sure Loren no problem,
 
 
this is probably one of the best looking H/S patterns I've seen in qui= te some time as each side has "mirrored" itself so far.
 
It will be interesting to see how it plays out... given we are so clos= e to big news with the G20 and NFP these could be the catalyst.
 
alot of analysts are dollar bulls with the recent consolidation so tha= t kinda plays into it as well...
 
additionally the move from 110.68 to 87.10 @ 68.8% retrace would put u= s at 103.32  after that I think the next move down to challenge 87.10 = will resume... time will tell.


--- On Wed, 4/1/09, Loren Morlan <gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com> wrote:
From: Loren Mo= rlan <gmorlan@tampabay.rr.com>
Subject: RE: [Divergence] USD/= JPY, 4/1/09, W-D-4H, Elliott Wave count
To: Divergence@yahoogroups.= com
Date: Wednesday, April 1, 2009, 5:02 PM

Ray,= thank you for taking the interest and time to post your 4 hour chart re fu= ture price behavior.    I do appreciate your comments since = they raise an important issue.  Namely will the 4 hour inverse head an= d shoulder pattern complete as predicted from such pattern?  Or will t= his normally bullish pattern fail to complete as expected?  Your chart= example does depict a bullish inverse H&S pattern.  This pattern = predicts a minimum price rise of a distance equal to the head to neck added= to the neck, 103 to 104 as you observe.

&nbs= p;

I at= tach an expanded daily chart with two Fibonacci expansion studies and Ellio= tt Wave count.  This chart identifies the inverse H&S pattern refe= r to above.  Not all H&S patterns or Fibonacci studies complete as= predicted. 

&nbs= p;

The = first Fibonacci study (green lines) shows the most recent retracement (poin= ts 3 & 5) against the downtrend.  This retracement suggest the dow= n trend is of =E2=80=9Cmedium=E2=80=9D strength. 

&nbs= p;

The = second and most recent retracement study measures the strength of the up cy= cle starting from the double bottom.  This study is important because = it suggests the uptrend is =E2=80=9Cstrong=E2=80=9D and that price will eas= ily exceed point 5 a distance of 4 to 5 added to point 5.  Thus far pr= ice has not been able to exceed the double top at points 3 and 5, thus sugg= esting a failure of the up cycle.  Fibonacci retracement and expansion= s studies are extremely important because they rely exclusively on raw pric= e data and no indicators or manipulation of price data.  They are comp= letely objective in their predictive value.  When they fail to meet th= eir prediction a trend change has occurred.

&nbs= p;

MACD= and price trace the first 5 waves of the Elliott wave cycle.  Point 5= compared to point 3 generates a MACD CND and essential element. 

&nbs= p;

Long= er term an upright H&S pattern is partially complete as marked on the c= hart.  Price has recently formed the head at double top, points 3 and = 5.   This pattern suggests lower price from the head and is param= ount when compared to a shorter 4 hour conflicting H&S pattern.

&nbs= p;

Unde= rstanding future price behavior requires its identification in the Elliott = Wave time cycle which is actually controlling price.  In this instance= price in the weekly period has reached the probable high of Wave 1 and if = correct price will move lower incident to corrective Wave 2.  Wave 2 w= ill in most instances retrace between 38.2 and 61.8 although deeper retrace= ments are possible and may occur in this example.

&nbs= p;

The = most recent low at 87.10 appears to be EW 3 low (lowest MACD value thus far= ) with price now in corrective wave 4 up.   When price exhausts i= tself at 4 high (double top at 3 & 5 may be 4 high) point 5 will most p= robably be lower than its present low.  A double bottom may form longe= r term.

&nbs= p;

Than= k you Ray for raising this  important issue.

&nbs= p;

Lore= n
 

&nbs= p;

From:= Divergence@yahoogro ups.com [mailto:Diver= gence@ yahoogroups. com] On Behalf Of Ray
Sent: Wednesday,= April 01, 2009 1:04 PM
To: Divergence@yahoogro ups.com
Sub= ject: Re: [Divergence] USD/JPY, 4/1/09, W-D-4H, Elliott Wave count

 

look for a drop to 96.50  area then buy es= pecially if RSI is at/near 25.  target area 103-104

if stop is used set to sub 95.50



--- On Wed, 4/1/09, Loren Morlan <g= morlan@tampabay. rr.com> wrote:

From: Loren Morlan <gmorlan@tampabay. rr.com><= BR>Subject: [Divergence] USD/JPY, 4/1/09, W-D-4H, Elliott Wave count
To:= Divergence@yahoogro ups.com
Date: Wednesday, April 1, 2009, 8:29 AM

Attached 3 period chart identifies probable truncate= d Wave 5 high in the daily period; which is high of Wave 1 in the weekly pe= riod.  My previous post suggested that Wave 5 in the daily could be &n= bsp;truncated.

 

Wave 5 has formed an apparent double top.  Long= er term traders have thus far prevented higher price in wave 5.  = Weekly chart suggests price has reached the high of Wave 1 which is repres= ented in the daily as a double top of Wave 5.   Stochastic in all= three periods shows green line below red suggesting a top in the daily and= weekly periods.

 

Price should retrace in the daily between 38.2 and 6= 1.8.  An extended retracement may each .707 to 85.4.=20

 =20

Comment;=20

 =20

This chart example shows that Wave 5 truncated doubl= e top occurs because a longer term Fibonacci cycle prevents its usual compl= etion.  It is possible that price may form a triple top to identify Wa= ve 1 high in the weekly Fibonacci cycle.=20

 =20

Loren=20

 =20

 

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