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26 Jan 2012 20:29:22 -0000 Sender: Divergence@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list Divergence@yahoogroups.com; contact Divergence-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list Divergence@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Thu, 26 Jan 2012 13:36:08 -0500 Subject: [Divergence] VIX/S&P500 VOLATILITY INDEX, 15 MINUTE CHART EW COUNT [1 Attachment] Reply-To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_00D3_01CCDC2F.7794DD00" ------=_NextPart_001_00D3_01CCDC2F.7794DD00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit 15 Minute: Price is searching for the high of corrective wave B in the daily NASDAQ. VIX (volatility of the S&P500) is shown to trace the inverse of price action in the NASDAQ. Which is to say when price increases in the NASDAQ, VIX values decrease and vice versa. In this example VIX values have declined as price increased in the NASDAQ/S&P500 re their search for corrective wave B high. Attached 15 minute VIX (volatility values) uses three indicators. The first, RSI traces its lowest value at wave 3 low and later traces a higher RSI value and therefore a CPD at wave 5. RSI traces a complex W below its 30 line at wave 5 which suggests VIX values will later trace lower for and extended wave 5. This is an unresolved issue as to whether VIX values will comply with this RSI prediction. Most often VIX values will trace lower while at the same time RSI will trace higher values above its 30 line. In either case (extended wave 5 or not) VIX values in the 15 minute suggest price in the NASDAQ is near wave B high. An analyst is seeking an optimal entry short in the NASDAQ subsequent to Wave B high. Accordingly the 15 minute period is monitored for resolution of the issue previously stated, i.e. extended wave 5 or not in the VIX. Second indicator, 20 and 200 day SMAs. 20 day SMA is further separated from the 200 day SMA at wave 3 compared to a lesser separation of those MAs at wave 5. Bears were able to force the 20 day further from the 200 at wave 3 and thereafter lost strength as bulls started their control at wave 5. VIX values were lower but 20 day was much closer to the 200 day. This is an important objective evidentiary fact, namely an internal CPD between these two moving averages. MAs are the slower indicator and will not answer the issue mentioned above. Third indicator, fractals. Fractals are present at each of waves noted. A minimum of 5 bars is required to form a fractal. Higher consecutive fractal lows in the 15 minute is now required identification of entry. Comments; It is interesting that VIX values are tracing an apparent 5 wave cycle lower while price in the NASDAQ is tracing a three wave corrective cycle higher. As indicated in my earlier post VIX/volatility does trace impulse waves 3 and 5. This chart is an example of that phenomena. Review of the one hour VIX period shows that RSI has in that period traced a trough above its 30 line which suggests the low of VIX values may be established and that price in the NASDAQ is at or near wave B. Loren ------=_NextPart_001_00D3_01CCDC2F.7794DD00 Content-Type: text/html; charset=US-ASCII Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit  
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15 Minute:

Price is searching for the high of corrective wave B in the daily NASDAQ.   VIX (volatility of the S&P500) is shown to trace the inverse of price action in the NASDAQ.  Which is to say when price increases in the NASDAQ, VIX values decrease and vice versa.   In this example VIX values have declined as price increased in the NASDAQ/S&P500 re their search for corrective wave B high.

 

Attached 15 minute VIX (volatility values) uses three indicators.  The first, RSI traces its lowest value at wave 3 low and later traces a higher RSI value and therefore a CPD at wave 5.  RSI traces a complex W below its 30 line at wave 5 which suggests VIX values will later trace lower for and extended wave 5.   This is an unresolved issue as to whether VIX values will comply with this RSI prediction.  Most often VIX values will trace lower while at the same time RSI will trace higher values above its 30 line.   In either case (extended wave 5 or not) VIX values in the 15 minute suggest price in the NASDAQ is near wave B high.   An analyst is seeking an optimal entry short in the NASDAQ subsequent to Wave B high.   Accordingly the 15 minute period is monitored for resolution of the issue previously stated, i.e. extended wave 5 or not in the VIX.

 

Second indicator, 20 and 200 day SMAs.  20 day SMA is further separated from the 200 day SMA at wave 3 compared to a lesser separation of those MAs at wave 5.  Bears were able to force the 20 day further from the 200 at wave 3 and thereafter lost strength as bulls started their control at wave 5.   VIX values were lower but 20 day was much closer to the 200 day.  This is an important objective evidentiary fact, namely an internal CPD between these two moving averages.   MAs are the slower indicator and will not answer the issue mentioned above.

 

Third indicator, fractals.  Fractals are present at each of waves noted.  A minimum of 5 bars is required to form a fractal.   Higher consecutive fractal lows in the 15 minute is now required identification of entry.

 

Comments;

It is interesting that VIX values are tracing an apparent 5 wave cycle lower while price in the NASDAQ is tracing a three wave corrective cycle higher.   As indicated in my earlier post VIX/volatility does trace impulse waves 3 and 5.  This chart is an example of that phenomena.

 

Review  of the one hour VIX period shows that RSI has in that period traced a trough above its 30 line which suggests the low of VIX values may be established and that price in the NASDAQ is at or near wave B.

 

Loren

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