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31 Mar 2010 00:05:31 -0000 Sender: Divergence@yahoogroups.com MIME-Version: 1.0 Mailing-List: list Divergence@yahoogroups.com; contact Divergence-owner@yahoogroups.com Delivered-To: mailing list Divergence@yahoogroups.com List-Id: Precedence: bulk List-Unsubscribe: Date: Tue, 30 Mar 2010 17:57:53 -0400 Subject: RE: [Divergence] EUR/GBP, 3/26/10, Follow up [1 Attachment] Reply-To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com X-Yahoo-Newman-Property: groups-email-ff-m Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_NextPart_001_0002_01CAD032.8642FE00" X-Antivirus: AVG for E-mail 9.0.791 [271.1.1/2779] ------=_NextPart_001_0002_01CAD032.8642FE00 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable Thank you Peter for your comments and charts. =20 I prefer to determine Elliott Wave price position in the daily period incid= ent to entries. The attached chart suggests price has perhaps recently mad= e the low of Wave 4 at FE level 141.4. FE study used the high of Wave 1, = low of 2 and high of 3 for the expansion. I think this is an accurate plac= ement of the study. Fib retracement study shows price retrace between 38.= 2 and 61.8 which suggests price will ultimately easily exceed Wave 3 high. =20 Two LR channels are used, one in blue the other green. Wave 4 low falls at= the low of both channels along with FE 141.4. Previously price moved hig= her from the lower blue line on the occasion of the earlier fractal lows. = =20 =20 Pesavento argues that price often follows the 3 drives up to a top and 3 do= wn for a low. Sometimes there are more. In this chart example, marked in = red we observe three fractals up for Wave 3 high and three fractals down to= Wave 4 low. The low of Wave 4 has not yet been conclusively established.= FE 161.8 is the next lower support level in the event of a lower Wave 4.= =20=20 =20 Loren=20=20 =20 From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.com] On Beh= alf Of Peter McIntyre Sent: Tuesday, March 30, 2010 12:33 PM To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com Subject: [Divergence] EUR/GBP, 3/26/10, Follow up [2 Attachments] =20 =20=20 [Attachment(s) from Peter McIntyre included below]=20 =20=20 =20=20 As you see, price respected my lines and I found entry on the 89 tick chart= a little after midnight my time. My firs entry was 2128 MST but was eventu= ally stopped out. I re-entered again on a retest of that line after 0030 MS= T. I eventually moved my stop suspecting to be stopped out in the am, I The= n found some sleep. As you see price fell very nicely out of the 60 minute = channel and continues to drop. At the time of this writing I was stopped ou= t at 8894 although price did hit the target line at 8880 on the 89 t chart.= =20 =20=20 Peter --- On Mon, 3/29/10, Peter McIntyre wrote: From: Peter McIntyre Subject: Re: [Divergence] EUR/GBP, 3/26/10, 1HOUR Construction of trend lin= e trades [1 Attachment] To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com Date: Monday, March 29, 2010, 3:52 PM =20=20 Loren, Interesting take on this pair and chart. My preference is to indent= ify a direction from a high in price or a low in price. My trend lines are = then placed from the top as magenta lines that I look price to bounce for e= ntries. The white target lines are simply where profit takers abandoned the= ir "taking" and price once again continued in the original direction.. You = know, what if price bounced against the trade then in the opposite directio= n it should bounce with the new trade in the correct direction? =20 As you see from the chart price most often respects these lines over and ov= er. =20 The next missing piece is the red and green chevrons, These mark where vali= dated swings occurred. A validated swing is nothing more than price pulling= back from the original direction and then moving higher taking out the hig= h or the low. This equals strength in the move of the price cluster. =20 This 60 minute chart simply shows how price fell from a top retested the bo= unce line and found a target. The yellow boxes represent ranges. the ranges= are found within the swings. The rub is how to read the swings. I simply move two horizontal lines from = swing to swing to identify my lines in the sand. The current setup is waiti= ng for price to move above or below those swing to signal strength one way = or another. =20 As you see from the angular trend lines Price has found a channel. One "tri= ck" when placing the lines is to keep the same slope. These lines tend to f= rame price much better than your tops of price or formula there of. =20 Let=E2=80=99s see what happens with price when it works out of this channel= =20 Peter --- On Fri, 3/26/10, Loren Morlan wrote: From: Loren Morlan Subject: [Divergence] EUR/GBP, 3/26/10, 1HOUR Construction of trend line tr= ades [1 Attachment] To: Divergence@yahoogro ups.com Date: Friday, March 26, 2010, 11:41 AM =20=20 Attached 1 hour chart depicts construction of uptrend channel lines and thr= ee long trades incident to that trend. =20 Lower trend line commences at chart low and establishes an uptrend line at = 40 degrees. This angle is determined by use of the last green dot (fractal= low) midway through the up cycle. The upper trend line follows the same a= ngle of increase as the lower line. The distance between the upper and low= er channel lines is 445 pips. The lime green line at the same angle is 11= 1 pips above the lower line (25%of the distance between the upper and lower= channel lines). =20 The two horizontal red lines identify a period of consolidation and documen= ts important support and resistance levels. Ultimately price lows during t= hat consolidation were below the lower lime green line. Long entries in an= uptrend should be entered when price is in the lower 25% of the channel. = Later another long trade was entered when price again retraced more recentl= y.=20 =20=20 Two Fibonacci retracement and one expansion studies are used. The first r= etracement study begins at the chart low to high in dark gray. Price retra= ced between 23.6 and 38.2 and argues the uptrend is strong and that price s= hould easily exceed the previous high. The second retracement study begin= s at the lower red consolidation support line to the chart high and is view= ed in green. Price retraced to 61.8 marked by a fractal low at that point.= Price was then below the 25% line a point at which a long trade was enter= ed.=20 =20=20 Fibonacci expansion study viewed in blue shows expansion below FE 100.=20=20 =20=20 RSI(14) blue line at this time was above 50 and pointed up which also argue= s an uptrend is in place. 4 Hour and daily periods also report RSI above 5= 0. Daily period suggests price is presently tracing wave 5 of the Elliott = Wave cycle.=20 =20=20 Comments;=20 Those interested in construction and use of trend lines please see =E2=80= =9CChannel Surfing=E2=80=9D by M. Parsons.=20 =20=20 In creating uptrend lines it is a mistake to always use price lows. The ex= ample in this chart shows that periods of consolidation/ retracement (bears= correct bull behavior) establishes a more reasonable angle of increase. Y= es judgment is required incident to construction of a valid trend line. Pe= riods of consolidation are most instructive to the technician incident to t= his effort.=20 =20=20 During Waves 3 and 5 price will often revisit levels below the 25% line whi= ch offers another opportunity for a lower risk long trade.=20 =20=20 The above comments equally apply to down trends.=20 =20=20 Loren =20 ------=_NextPart_001_0002_01CAD032.8642FE00 Content-Type: text/html; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable  
=20=20=20=20=20=20 [Attachment(s) from Loren Morlan included below] =20=20=20=20=20=20

Than= k you Peter for your comments and charts.

&= nbsp;

I pr= efer to determine Elliott Wave price position in the daily period incident to entries.=C2=A0 The attached chart suggests price has perhaps re= cently made the low of Wave 4 at FE level 141.4.=C2=A0=C2=A0 FE study used the hig= h of Wave 1, low of 2 and high of 3 for the expansion.=C2=A0 I think this is an accurate pla= cement of the study.=C2=A0 =C2=A0Fib retracement study shows price retrace between 38= 2 and 61.8 which suggests price will ultimately easily exceed Wave 3 high.

&= nbsp;

Two = LR channels are used, one in blue the other green.=C2=A0 Wave 4 low falls at the low of both channels along with FE 141.4.=C2=A0=C2=A0 Prev= iously price moved higher from the lower blue line on the occasion of the earlier fracta= l lows. =C2=A0

&= nbsp;

Pesa= vento argues that price often follows the 3 drives up to a top and 3 down for a low.=C2=A0 Sometimes there are more.=C2=A0 In this cha= rt example, marked in red we observe three fractals up for Wave 3 high and three fracta= ls down to Wave 4 low. =C2=A0=C2=A0The low of Wave 4 has not yet been conclusi= vely established.=C2=A0=C2=A0 FE 161.8 is the next lower support level in the ev= ent of a lower Wave 4.=C2=A0

&= nbsp;

Lore= n=C2=A0

&= nbsp;

From: Divergence@yahoogroups.com [mailto:Divergence@yahoogroups.co= m] On Behalf Of Peter McIntyre
Sent: Tuesday, March 30, 2010 12:33 PM
To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [Divergence] EUR/GBP, 3/26/10, Follow up [2 Attachments]=

 

 

[Attachment(s) from P= eter McIntyre included below]

 

 

As you see, price respected my lines and I found entry on the 89 tick chart = a little after midnight my time. My firs entry was 2128 MST but was eventua= lly stopped out. I re-entered again on a retest of that line after 0030 MST. = I eventually moved my stop suspecting to be stopped out in the am, I Then f= ound some sleep. As you see price fell very nicely out of the 60 minute channe= l and continues to drop. At the time of this writing I was stopped out at 8= 894 although price did hit the target line at 8880 on the 89 t chart. =

 

Peter

--- On Mon, 3/29/10, Peter McIntyre <mcpetetrader@yahoo.com= > wrote:


From: Peter McIntyre <mcpetetrader@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re: [Divergence] EUR/GBP, 3/26/10, 1HOUR Construction of trend l= ine trades [1 Attachment]
To: Divergence@yahoogroups.com
Date: Monday, March 29, 2010, 3:52 PM

 

Loren, Interesting take on this pair and chart.  My preference is to indentify a direction from a high in price or a low in price. My trend lines are then placed from the top as magenta lines that I look price t= o bounce for entries. The white target lines are simply where profit take= rs abandoned their "taking" and price once again continued in th= e original direction.. You know, what if price bounced against the t= rade then in the opposite direction it should bounce with the new trade in t= he correct direction?

 <= o>

As you see from the chart price most often respects these lines over and o= ver.

 <= o>

The next missing piece is the red and green chevrons, These mark where validated swings occurred. A validated swing is nothing more than price pulling back from the original direction and then moving higher taking = out the high or the low. This equals strength in the move of the price clus= ter.

 <= o>

This 60 minute chart simply shows how price fell from a top retested the bou= nce line and found a target. The yellow boxes represent ranges. the ranges = are found within the swings.

The rub is how to read the swings. I simply move two horizontal lines from swing to swing to identify my lines in the sand. The current setup is waiting for price to move above or below those swing to signal strength= one way or another.

 <= o>

As you see from the angular trend lines Price has found a channel. One "trick" when placing the lines is to keep the same slope. The= se lines tend to frame price much better than your tops of price or formul= a there of.

 <= o>

Let=E2=80=99s see what happens with price when it works out of this channel.

 <= o>

Peter



--- On Fri, 3/26/10, Loren Morlan <gmorlan@tampabay. rr.com>= ; wrote:


From: Loren Morlan <gmorlan@tampabay. rr.com>
Subject: [Divergence] EUR/GBP, 3/26/10, 1HOUR Construction of trend lin= e trades [1 Attachment]
To: Divergence@yahoogro ups.com
Date: Friday, March 26, 2010, 11:41 AM

 

Attached 1 hour chart depicts construction of up= trend channel lines and three long trades incident to that trend.

 

Lower trend line commences at chart low and esta= blishes an uptrend line at 40 degrees.  This angle is determined by use of the last g= reen dot (fractal low) midway through the up cycle.  The upper trend li= ne follows the same angle of increase as the lower line.  The distanc= e between the upper and lower channel lines is 445 pips.  The lime g= reen line at the same angle  is 111 pips above the lower line (25%of th= e distance between the upper and lower channel lines).

 

The two horizontal red lines identify a period o= f consolidation and documents important support and resistance levels.  Ultimately pri= ce lows during that consolidation were below the lower lime green line.&nb= sp; Long entries in an uptrend should be entered when price is in the lower= 25% of the channel.  Later another long trade was entered when price a= gain retraced more recently.

 

Two Fibonacci retracement  and one expansio= n studies are used.  The first retracement study begins at the chart low to high= in dark gray.  Price retraced between 23.6 and 38.2 and argues the uptrend is strong and that price should easily exceed the previous high.   The second retracement study begins at the lower red consolidation support line to the chart high and is viewed in green.&nb= sp; Price retraced to 61.8 marked by a fractal low at that point.  Pri= ce was then below the 25% line a point at which a long trade was entered. =

 

Fibonacci expansion study viewed in blue shows e= xpansion below FE 100. 

 

RSI(14) blue line at this time was above 50 and = pointed up which also argues an uptrend is in place.  4 Hour and daily periods also repo= rt RSI above 50.  Daily period suggests price is presently tracing wa= ve 5 of the Elliott Wave cycle.

 

Comments;

Those interested in construction and use of tren= d lines please see =E2=80=9CChannel Surfing=E2=80=9D by M. Parsons.

 

In creating uptrend lines it is a mistake to alw= ays use price lows.  The example in this chart shows that periods of consolidati= on/ retracement (bears correct bull behavior) establishes a more reasonable angle of increase.  Yes judgment is required incident to construct= ion of a valid trend line.  Periods of consolidation are most instruct= ive to the technician incident to this effort.

 

During Waves 3 and 5 price will often revisit le= vels below the 25% line which offers another opportunity for a lower risk long trade. <= /o>

 

The above comments equally apply to down trends.=

 

Loren

 

=20=20=20=20=20
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